Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction 5/11/2026 Today’s MLB Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Apr 27, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz (2) jogs to first base after walking in the sixth inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Team Records
26-13
18-22
Spread
+1.5 -207
-1.5 169
Moneyline
+109
-131
Total
Over 7 (-115)
Under 7 (-105)
Where
Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario
When
Monday, May 11, 2026
Time
07:07 PM EDT
TV
MLB.TV
The Tampa Bay Rays and the Toronto Blue Jays meet Monday in MLB action from Rogers Centre. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Tampa Bay Rays will send out Drew Rasmussen for the start here and Rasmussen is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 37 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against Toronto, Rasmussen is 1-3 with a 4.39 ERA and 18 strikeouts. Kevin Gausman will start for Toronto and is 2-2 with a 3.09 ERA and 43 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Rays, Gausman is 0-1 with a 5.27 ERA and 26 strikeouts.
Tampa Bay Rays Recap
The Tampa Bay Rays come into this game looking to build on a 4-1 win over Boston last time out to sit at 26-13 this season. After this series, the Rays will head home for a series against the Marlins.
Rays Win 8 Of Last 9
Yandy Diaz has 44 hits with 4 doubles, a triple, 5 home runs and 23 RBIs while Chandler Simpson has 46 hits with 3 triples and 11 RBIs. Nick Fortes has 28 hits with 5 doubles, a home run and 8 RBIs and Jonathan Aranda has 37 hits with 5 doubles, 7 homers and 29 RBIs. Junior Caminero’s also added 37 hits with 3 doubles, 11 home runs and 19 RBIs and Ben WIlliamson has 28 hits with 5 doubles and 13 RBIs.
Toronto Blue Jays Recap
The Toronto Blue Jays come into this game looking to bounce back from a 6-1 loss at the hands of the Angels last time out to sit at 18-22 this season. After this series, the Blue Jays will head on the road for a series against the Detroit Tigers.
Blue Jays Drop 5 Of Last 7
Andres Gimenez has 32 hits with 6 doubles, a triple, 3 home runs and 18 RBIs while Ernie Clement has 47 hits with 13 doubles and 12 RBIs. Kazuma Okamoto has 36 hits with 4 doubles, 10 home runs, 26 RBIs and a team-high 46 strikeouts while George Springer also has 5 doubles, 2 homers with 7 RBIs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has 45 hits with 7 doubles, 2 home runs and 17 RBIs as well. Jesus Sanchez also has 29 hits with 4 doubles, 5 home runs and 17 RBIs.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays Betting Trends: May 11, 2026
Probable Starting Pitcher: Kevin Gausman Record this season: 2-2 ERA: 3.09
Home Record: 1-1
Last 5 against Rays: 0-1
Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win
The home team has won each of the last eight games between the Rays and Blue Jays.
The Rays have lost each of their last eight road games against AL East opponents following a road win.
The Blue Jays have covered the run line in eight of their last nine home games against AL East opponents.
The Rays have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight road games against AL East opponents following a road win.
The Blue Jays have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven home games against AL East opponents.
The Blue Jays have won the first inning in three of their last four night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
The Blue Jays have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight home games against AL East opponents.
Probable Starting Pitcher: Drew Rasmussen Record this season: 2-1 ERA: 2.95
Road Record: 0-1
Last 5 against Blue Jays: 1-2
Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win
The Rays have won each of their last seven games against the Blue Jays following a win.
The Blue Jays have lost each of their last six games against the Rays following a loss.
The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last six Monday games against AL East opponents.
The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five night games against teams that held a winning record.
The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six home games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
The Blue Jays have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
The Blue Jays have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six night games against opponents that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
Twelve of the Rays’ last 14 games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Five of the Blue Jays’ last six games as favorites against the Rays have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last seven night games between the Rays and Blue Jays.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Rays’ last eight road games against American League opponents.
Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts
Kevin Gausman has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
Kevin Gausman has recorded six or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances with the Blue Jays as favorites against the Rays.
Ernie Clement has recorded at least one hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last 18 night games against opponents that held a winning record.
Alejandro Kirk has hit at least one home run in each of his last three appearances with the Blue Jays as favorites against AL East opponents.
Ernie Clement ranks T9th in the league in Hits (47) this season.
Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts
Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in four of his last 17 appearances with the Rays as road underdogs.
Drew Rasmussen has recorded five or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
Gavin Lux has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven road appearances.
Chandler Simpson ranks T5th in the league in Steals (12) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (269).
The Blue Jays rank T29th in the league for triples this season (1).
The Rays rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (46).
The Rays rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts against this season (274).
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction
I’m on the under in this game. I just think this is a great pitching matchup between two teams that have been playing in more than their fair share of low-scoring games as of late and I think this is going to be a duel here. So give me the under.
