Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 5/9/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

Nikos Lagouretos

2 hours ago

Apr 22, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Nick Martinez (28) throws during the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images

MATCHUP	Tampa Bay Rays	Boston Red Sox
Team Records	25-13	17-22
Spread	+1.5 -168	-1.5 139
Moneyline	+129	-156
Total	Over 7.5 (-105)	Under 7.5 (-115)
Where	Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts
When	Saturday, May 9, 2026
Time	04:10 PM EDT
TV	MLB.TV

In this article, we will formulate a Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for this MLB matchup on Saturday, May 9th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox have a 17-22 record this season and are sitting in the fourth place of the AL East. They have a 7-11 home record and are coming off a 2-0 win at home against the Rays. They will face the Phillies and the Braves next.

The Red Sox have a .234 batting average this season, .314 OBP and .353 Slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Wilyer Abreu is the team’s best hitter with a .303 batting average. Willson Contreras leads the team in RBI with 23, also adding a team‑high 8 home runs.

Payton Tolle (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, and he has a 1-1 record, 2.04 ERA and 0.74 WHIP.

Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 25-13 record this season and are sitting in the second place of the AL East. They have a 11-9 away record and are coming off a 0-2 loss on the road against the Red Sox. They will face the Blue Jays and the Marlins next.

The Rays have a .254 batting average this season, .327 OBP and .373 Slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has a 3.51 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Yandy Diaz is the team’s best hitter with a .316 batting average. Jonathan Aranda leads the team in RBI with 29, and Junior Caminero adds a team‑high 10 home runs.

Nick Martinez (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 3-1 record, 1.71 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox Betting Trends: May 9, 2026

Probable Starting Pitcher: Payton Tolle Record this season: 1-1 ERA: 2.04
Home Record: 0-0
Last 5 against Rays: 0-0

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

The Rays have lost each of their last 10 day games against American League opponents following a loss.
The home team has won eight of the Rays’ last nine games.
The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine day games against American League opponents following a loss.
The Red Sox have covered the run line in four of their last five day games against teams that held a winning record.
The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five road day games.
The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five road games against AL East opponents.

Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Martinez Record this season: 3-1 ERA: 1.71
Road Record: 1-1
Last 5 against Red Sox: 1-0

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

The Red Sox have lost each of their last six games as favorites against American League opponents following a home win.
The Rays have won four of their last five games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine home games against American League opponents following a win.
The Rays have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs against the Red Sox following a loss.
The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six Saturday home games.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Rays’ last six day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Four of the last five games between the Rays and Red Sox have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last seven road games against American League opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games as favorites.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

Willson Contreras has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last five day games.
Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 12 games against the Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in four of his last 16 appearances with the Rays as road underdogs.
Gavin Lux has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven road appearances.
Nick Martinez ranks 4th amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (1.71) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

The Red Sox rank 29th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.353).
The Red Sox rank T27th in the league for home runs this season (29).
The Rays rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (46).
The Rays rank T2nd in the league for steals this season (40).

Rays vs Red Sox Prediction

The Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings against the Rays and are 6-1 in their last 7 meetings in Boston.

In this Rays vs Red Sox Prediction, the Red Sox are coming as -150 home favorites. Boston won a low-scoring affair yesterday and now we have a pitching duel as Payton Tolle goes up against Nick Martinez and both pitchers have a combined 3.75 ERA. Yesterday’s game had just two total runs and both teams are weaker against the opposing starter throw hand with just 7.6 runs/9 combined. The Rays’ bullpen has been one of the best in baseball lately, while the Red Sox are 8th in bullpen ERA this season, so I expect a low-scoring affair. Take the under 7.5 runs.