Cincinnati Reds (14-13) vs St. Louis Cardinals (12-15)
Game Info: Monday, April 28, 2025 at 6:40 pm (Great American Ball Park)
The Line: Betting Odds: Cincinnati Reds -122 / St. Louis Cardinals +102 — Over/Under: 9
The St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds meet Monday in MLB action from Great American Ball Park. This will be the first installment in a four-game series. Here’s a Cardinals vs Reds prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Cardinals vs Reds pick. We will examine:
The St. Louis Cardinals’ recent form and player performance
The Cincinnati Reds’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the St. Louis Cardinals
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Cincinnati Reds
Recent betting trends in games played between the Cardinals and Reds
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Cardinals vs Reds game
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview
The Cardinals opened up their year with a sweep over the Minnesota Twins, a series loss versus the Los Angeles Angels, and a sweep by the Boston Red Sox. St. Louis dropped another set versus the Pittsburgh Pirates, then finally won a series versus Philadelphia. The Cardinals kept it going with a series win versus the Houston Astros, then got swept by the Mets and lost a set against the Braves. Following a 3-2 win over the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday, in the Saturday game, St. Louis jumped out to a 5-0 lead at one point but had to hang on for the win, 6-5 in the end. Nolan Arenado posted a solo homer along the way.
On Sunday in the finale, the Cardinals were out-hit 11-7 in a 7-1 loss. Erick Fedde gave up seven earned runs on 10 hits and two walks in 5.2 innings as the starting pitcher.
In the Monday game, St. Louis will send out Andre Pallante to start. This year, Pallante is 2-1 with a 4.05 ERA in five starts over 26.2 innings. Pallante is 20-15 with a 3.81 career ERA in 143 games (35 starts).
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
Over on the Reds’ side, their campaign kicked off with a string of series losses versus the San Francisco Giants, the Texas Rangers, and the Milwaukee Brewers. Cincinnati would finally get a series win in the rematch with the Giants, then bag a sweep versus the Pirates. After another series loss against the Mariners, the Reds beat Baltimore in two of three and fell to the Marlins in two of three. Cincinnati beat Colorado 8-7 in their Friday opener, then in game two on Saturday, the Reds secured 13 team hits in a 6-4 victory. Austin Hayes had two solo homers, and Noelvi Marti had two RBI with a homer of his own.
In the finale, Cincinnati scored three in the first inning and four in the fifth on the way to an 8-1 blowout win. Nick Lodolo posted 7.0 clean frames with two hits, one walk, and nine Ks in the start.
Nick Martinez will start the Monday game for the Reds. This year, Martinez is 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in five starts across 26.2 innings. In 245 career games (108 starts) at the MLB level, Martinez is 37-48 with a 4.18 ERA.
Why the Cincinnati Reds will win
- The Reds have won 18 of their last 19 Monday home games.
- The Cardinals have lost seven of their last eight road games against National League opponents.
- The Reds have covered the run line each of their last seven night games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games against the Reds following a loss.
- The Cardinals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last three games at Great American Ball Park.
- The Cardinals have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games at Great American Ball Park.
Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win
- The Cardinals have won eight of their last nine games as underdogs following a home loss.
- The Reds have lost three of their last four games as favorites against the Cardinals following a road win.
- The Cardinals have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as underdogs against NL Central opponents following a loss.
- The Reds have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a road win.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Reds’ last five games as favorites against the Cardinals have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Nine of the Cardinals’ last 11 night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cardinals’ last seven night games against National League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last four games between the Cardinals and Reds.
Cardinals vs Reds Prediction
I’ll take a stab on the Reds here, but you could make a case either way. Martinez hasn’t been terrible in his last couple of outings, posting 10.1 innings total with five earned on 12 hits and five walks. He’s 0-1 in that pair, however. As for Pallante, he’s been struggling in his last pair with eight earned in 10.1 innings on 14 hits and three walks. If neither starter is on point here, this game could get out of hand quickly.
The Reds looked great against the struggling Rockies on Sunday, buoyed by 14 team hits and a nice pitching performance. If Cincinnati can maintain form in the Monday opener versus St. Louis, the Reds will be in great shape down the stretch. Martinez needs a quality outing, though.