Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Prediction 5/17/25 MLB Picks

The Seattle Mariners are visiting the San Diego Padres on Saturday, May 17th at the Petco Park in the second game of this series, with the Mariners having a 1-0 lead. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Prediction. We will examine:

The San Diego Padres’ recent form and player performance

The Seattle Mariners’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the San Diego Padres

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Seattle Mariners

Recent betting trends in games played between the Seattle Mariners and the San Diego Padres

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres game

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 27-16 record this season and are sitting in second place in the NL West. They have a 16-6 home record and are 19-23 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 1-5 home defeat by the Mariners, ending their previous two-game winning streak. Over is 5-2 in their last 7 games, and they are playing the Braves and the Blue Jays next. 

The Padres have a .263 batting average this season, a .331 OBP, and a .399 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.34 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.  Manny Machado leads the Padres with 52 hits and a team-high .331 batting average. Fernando Tatis Jr leads the team both in RBI, with 26, and in home runs, with 11. 

Nick Pivetta (R) will take the mound for the Padres, and he has a 5-2 record, 3.05 ERA, and 1.06 WHIP. He has been extremely good at home, with a 1.42 ERA in four home starts, but he is coming off his worst start of the season, as he gave up 6 runs across 4 innings pitched against the Rockies. Nick Pivetta has a 2-2 record with an ERA of 3.73 and 40 strikeouts in 5 appearances versus the Mariners in his career.  

Seattle Mariners Preview

The Seattle Mariners have a 24-19 record this season and are sitting in first place in the AL West. The Mariners have an 11-8 road record and 25-16 in over/under. They are coming off a 5-1 road victory over the Padres, and are 2-5 in their last 7 games. Under is 3-0 in their last 3 games, and they are playing the Astros and the White Sox next.

The Mariners have a .240 batting average this season, a .328 OBP, and a .403 Slugging percentage. Seattle’s pitching staff has a 3.84 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Julio Rodriguez leads the Mariners with 41 hits, while JP Crawford is the team’s best hitter with a .278 batting average. Cal Raleigh leads the team both in RBI with 30 and in home runs with 14.

Emerson Hancock (R) will take the mound for the Mariners, and he has a 1-2 record, 6.91 ERA, and 1.71 WHIP. He has been better on the road with a 3.18 ERA across three road starts, but he is coming off his worst start of the season, as he gave up 7 runs in 5 innings pitched against the Yankees. In his only start against the Padres in his career back in 2023, he gave up one run in 5 innings pitched.   

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Mariners have lost each of their last four night games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Padres have won four of their last five night games at Petco Park following a home loss.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games following a road win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in six of their last seven home games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in three of their last four home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven night games.

Why the Seattle Mariners will win

• The Mariners have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs against the Padres.
• The Padres have lost four of their last five games as favorites against American League opponents following a loss.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in nine of the Mariners’ last 10 games.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against the Mariners following a loss.
• The Mariners have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games against National League opponents.
• The Mariners have led after 5 innings in each of their last five games at Petco Park against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mariners have won the first inning in four of their last five road games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Four of the Mariners’ last five games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Padres’ last five games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Mariners’ last nine games as road underdogs.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Padres’ last eight games as favorites.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (295).
• The Padres rank 2nd in the league for runs allowed this season (151).
• The Mariners rank 28th in the league for doubles this season (56).
• The Mariners rank T3rd in the league for walks this season (171).

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Prediction

The Mariners are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings against the Padres, and have won their last 3 visits in San Diego in a dominant fashion, with a combined 15-4 score. Under is 6-3-2 in their last 11 meetings.

In this Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -180 home favorites. The Padres are rightfully favored, as they have a better record this season, and they have the second-best home record in the National League. The Padres also have a better bullpen and the pitching advantage in this game, as they are looking to bounce back from yesterday’s embarrassing performance. This is the perfect bounce-back spot, so take the San Diego Padres by -1.5 runs in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: San Diego Padres -1.5