Reds vs Rays Prediction 4/21/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Reds vs Rays prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, April 21st at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 15-8 this year after they won game one by a score of 6-1 on Monday night. Cincinnati scored two runs in the first inning and they steadily pulled away during the middle innings for the win. The Reds recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Stewart and Hinds, who both had two RBIs. Lowder allowed five hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings for the win, while Burke struck out two in one relief inning. Prior to this series, Cincinnati won all three against the Twins and two out of three against the Giants. 

This season, Cincinnati has a 3.36 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP and a .227 opponent batting average, while they have scored 84 runs with a .204 batting average and a .296 on base percentage. Sal Stewart has led the Reds with eight home runs and 21 RBIs, while Elly De La Cruz has added six home runs and 13 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Chase Burns, who is 1-1 with a 2.42 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over 22.1 innings pitched this year. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 12-10 this season after they dropped game one to start this series on Monday night. Tampa Bay cut the deficit to 2-1 in the first inning, but they were shutout over the last eight innings for the loss. The Rays recorded six hits in the game and they were led by Diaz, who went 0-3 with one RBI. Scholtens allowed seven hits and five earned runs over 5.2 innings for the loss, while Martin allowed one earned run in relief. Prior to this series, Tampa Bay lost two out of three against the Pirates, but did win all three against the White Sox before that. 

This season, Tampa Bay has a 4.54 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and a .230 opponent batting average, while they have scored 104 runs with a .256 batting average and a .329 on base percentage. Yandy Diaz has led the Rays with three home runs and 17 RBIs, while Jonathan Aranda has added three home runs and 16 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Steven Matz, who is 3-0 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 21.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The underdogs have won each of the Rays’ last six games at Tropicana Field.
• The Reds have lost four of their last five games as road favorites after playing the previous day.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Reds’ last seven games.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in 13 of their last 14 Tuesday night games as favorites against American League opponents.

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won each of their last seven road games against American League opponents.
• The Rays have lost each of their last five night games against National League opponents.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last seven road games against American League opponents.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five night games against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in four of their last five road games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven road games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last four games between the Reds and Rays at Tropicana Field have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Reds’ last 10 road games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Reds’ last seven games as road favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Rays’ last 10 games as home underdogs.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit at least one home run in two of the Rays’ last three games as home underdogs against NL opponents.
• Chandler Simpson has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays’ last 13 games against NL Central opponents.
• Steven Matz has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 10 games against AL opponents.
• Jose Trevino has hit at least one home run in three of his last five appearances with his team as a road favorite against AL East opponents.

Reds vs Rays Prediction 

Cincinnati comes into this matchup on a four game winning streak and they have scored 13 runs in their last two games. The Reds are 9-2 on the road this year, while the Rays are 4-3 at home. Tampa Bay has lost three of their last four games and they have allowed 5+ runs in four straight. The Rays are starting Matz, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. The Reds are going with Burns, who has allowed one earned or fewer in three of his four starts. This should be a great pitching matchup, so I like the under in this one.

David Racey's Pick: Under 7.5