| MATCHUP | Pittsburgh Pirates | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 58-62 | 60-59 |
| Spread | -1.5 144 | +1.5 -175 |
| Moneyline | -118 | -102 |
| Total | Over 7 (-112) | Under 7 (-108) |
| Where | loanDepot park, Miami, Florida | |
| When | Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | |
| Time | 06:40 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
Miami Marlins Preview
The Miami Marlins have a 60-59 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL East. They have a 36-24 home record and are coming off a 12-3 home win against the Angels. They will face the Reds and the Phillies next.
The Miami Marlins have a .251 batting average this season, .326 OBP and .405 Slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 3.97 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Otto Lopez is the team’s best hitter with a .318 batting average, leading the team in RBI with 53, while Heriberto Hernandez adds a team-high 16 home runs.
Eury Perez (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, and he has a 5-9 record, 3.61 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 58-62 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the NL Central. They have a 28-32 away record and are coming off a 1-11 home loss against the Mets. They will face the Red Sox and the Tigers next.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a .256 batting average this season, .334 OBP and .412 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 4.34 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Nick Gonzales is the team’s best hitter with a .306 batting average. Brandon Lowe leads the team in RBI with 74, adding a team-high 25 home runs.
Paul Skenes (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates, and he has a 9-10 record, 3.96 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: August 11, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Eury Perez Record this season: 5-9 ERA: 3.61
- Home Record: 3-4
- Last 5 against Pirates: 1-1
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Marlins have won each of their last 10 home games against National League opponents following a win.
- The Pirates have lost six of their last eight games as favorites.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as underdogs against NL Central opponents following a win.
- The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Pirates have lost the first inning in three of their last four games.
- The Marlins have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have led after 3 innings in six of their last eight home night games.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Paul Skenes Record this season: 9-10 ERA: 3.96
- Road Record: 4-5
- Last 5 against Marlins: 1-1
Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win
- The Marlins have lost each of their last six night games against the Pirates at LoanDepot Park following a win.
- The Pirates have won five of their last six night games at LoanDepot Park following a loss.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four night games following a win.
- The favorites have covered the run line in six of the Marlins’ last seven games.
- The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight home games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four night games.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Marlins’ last eight games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Pirates’ last four road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of the Marlins’ last eight games against National League opponents.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Pirates’ last four games.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Griffin Conine has hit a home run in each of the Marlins’ last four games as home underdogs.
- Eury Perez has recorded eight or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances with the Marlins as underdogs.
- Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in night games against NL Central teams that held a losing record.
- Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (147) this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Paul Skenes has recorded seven or more strikeouts in 13 of his last 14 appearances with the Pirates as favorites against NL opponents.
- Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last 11 games as road favorites against NL opponents.
- Endy Rodriguez has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last two night games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Nick Gonzales ranks T5th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.306) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for triples this season (27).
- The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for steals this season (124).
- The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1064).
- The Pirates rank 30th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1135).
Pirates vs Marlins Prediction
Both teams are tied 5-5 in their last 10 meetings but the Marlins have won their last two meetings in Miami.
In this Pirates vs Marlins Prediction, the Pirates are coming as -115 road favorites. I like the Marlins as home dogs in this one, as they will face a struggling Paul Skenes, who is currently in his worst slump of his career. He has given up 13 runs across his last three starts and on top of that, the Pirates bats have gone cold, so this is bad news for the Pittsburgh squad. Skenes has a bad 4.63 road ERA this season while Eury Perez sits on a 3.29 home ERA and will face a Pirates team that scores just 3.7 runs per game in their last 10. Take the Marlins in this one for plus money.