Pirates vs Yankees Prediction 7/22/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Pirates vs Yankees prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, July 22nd at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 52-49 this year after they lost game one by a score of 5-8 on Monday night. Pittsburgh led 5-4 in the third inning, but didn’t score over the last six innings for the loss. The Pirates recorded nine hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Valdez, who went 1-3 with one home run and two RBIs. Ashcraft allowed nine hits and seven earned runs over 3.0 innings for the loss, while Dotel threw three innings in relief. Prior to this series, Pittsburgh won two out of three against the Guardians and swept the Brewers in three games. 

This season, Pittsburgh has a 4.30 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .240 opponent batting average, while they have scored 538 runs with a .263 batting average and a .341 on base percentage. Brandon Lowe has led the Pirates with 21 home runs and 65 RBIs, while Ryan O’Hearn has added 16 home runs and 64 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh in game one is Mitch Keller, who is 6-7 with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 103.1 innings pitched this year. The projected starter in game two is Bubba Chandler, who is 3-8 with a 4.77 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP over 94.1 innings pitched. 

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees are 56-44 this year after they won game one by a score of 8-5 on Monday. New York trailed 5-4 in the third inning, but they scored four runs in the bottom of the third and hung on for the win. The Yankees recorded 11 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Chisholm Jr, who went 2-4 with two home runs and five RBIs. Weathers allowed seven hits and five earned runs over 4.2 innings, while Chivilli picked up the win and Cruz got the save. Prior to this series, New York lost two out of three against the Dodgers, but did sweep the Nationals before that. 

This season, New York has a 3.42 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and a .228 opponent batting average, while they have scored 475 runs with a .237 batting average and a .316 on base percentage. Ben Rice has led the Yankees with 29 home runs and 68 RBIs, while Cody Bellinger has added 11 home runs and 52 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for New York in game one is Gerrit Cole, who is 3-5 with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 55.0 innings pitched this season. The projected starter in game two is Max Fried, who is 4-3 with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP over 61.2 innings pitched. 

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Yankees have won eight of their last nine day games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have lost four of their last five road games against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in eight of their last nine day games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four games against AL East opponents.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four road games against AL East opponents.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four road games against AL East opponents.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won each of their last four games as road underdogs against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The Yankees have lost three of their last four games as home favorites following a win.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 11 games as favorites following a home win.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in four of their last five day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Yankees have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 day games.
• The Yankees have lost the first inning in three of their last four day games against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Yankees’ last six games as favorites against the Pirates have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Pirates’ last five games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of the Pirates’ last eight games against AL East opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in six of the Yankees’ last seven games as favorites.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Jazz Chisholm has hit at least one home run in three of his last four appearances with his team as a home favorite against the Pirates.
• Gerrit Cole has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Jasson Dominguez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances with the Yankees as favorites against NL opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit at least one home run in five of the Pirates’ last six day games.
• Mitch Keller has recorded five or more strikeouts in 12 of his last 13 appearances with the Pirates as road underdogs against AL opponents.
• Nick Gonzales has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last 10 road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Mitch Keller has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances with the Pirates as underdogs against AL East opponents.

Pirates vs Yankees Prediction 

New York comes into this matchup on a two game winning streak and they are currently two games back in the AL East. The Yankees are 25-22 at home this year, while the Pirates are 25-25 on the road. Pittsburgh has won three of their last five games and they have scored 5+ runs in four of those five. In game one, I don’t trust Keller at all, so I will go Yankees -1.5. In game two, Fried is coming off of a lengthy IL stay and this isn’t an easy lineup to face, so I will take the Pirates.

David Racey's Pick: Game 1: Yankees -1.5 Game 2: Pirates ML