Pirates vs Phillies Prediction 7/2/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Pirates vs Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, July 2nd at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 43-44 this season after they lost two of the first three games in this series by scores of 11-7, 0-8, and 6-10. In game three, Pittsburgh cut the deficit to 8-6 in the seventh inning, but couldn’t get any closer in the loss. The Pirates recorded 12 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Triolo, who went 1-2 with three RBIs. Skenes allowed six hits and seven earned runs over 4.0 innings for the loss, while Santana allowed two earned runs in relief. Prior to this series, Pittsburgh lost two out of three against the Reds, but did win two out of three against the Mariners before that. 

This season, Pittsburgh has a 4.28 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and a .238 opponent batting average, while they have scored 446 runs with a .258 batting average and a .337 on base percentage. Brandon Lowe has led the Pirates with 20 home runs and 57 RBIs, while Bryan Reynolds has added 11 home runs and 53 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Jared Jones, who is 1-1 with a 5.76 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over 25.0 innings pitched this season. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 49-38 this year after they won game three by a score of 10-6 on Wednesday night. Philadelphia scored five runs in the second inning and never surrendered the lead in the high scoring win. The Phillies recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Turner, who went 2-5 with one home run and three RBIs. Wheeler allowed nine hits and four earned runs over 4.2 innings, while Kerkering picked up the win in relief. Prior to this series, Philadelphia won two out of three against the Mets and three out of four against the Nationals. 

This season, Philadelphia has a 4.12 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .255 opponent batting average, while they have scored 393 runs with a .238 batting average and a .304 on base percentage. Kyle Schwarber has led the Phillies with 30 home runs and 55 RBIs, while Bryce Harper has added 20 home runs and 56 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Alan Rangel, who is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 12.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last seven Thursday day games at Citizens Bank Park.
• The Pirates have lost 11 of their last 13 games against NL East opponents.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 13 games against NL East opponents.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in five of their last six home games against the Pirates.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six road games against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games against the Pirates.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Phillies have lost 10 of their last 15 games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have won three of their last four day games at Citizens Bank Park following a loss.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four day games following a win.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in 12 of their last 16 games as road underdogs following a road loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Pirates’ last six games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Three of the Phillies’ last four games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in four of the Phillies’ last five games against National League opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Pirates’ last five Thursday day games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in eight of the Phillies’ last 10 games at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Edmundo Sosa has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 home appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Jared Jones has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his three previous road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Jake Mangum has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances with the Pirates as road underdogs.
• Henry Davis has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.

Pirates vs Phillies Prediction

Philadelphia comes into this matchup looking for the series win and they have scored 30 runs in their last four games. The Phillies are 25-20 at home this year, while the Pirates are 20-22 on the road. Pittsburgh has lost three of their last five games and they have allowed 7+ runs in four of those five. The Pirates are starting Jones, who has allowed 3, 1, 5, and 2 earned runs in his last four starts, while Rangel has allowed 4, 1, and 1 earned runs in his three outings. I don’t really trust either starter in this spot, but I will take the Phillies, as their offense is red hot right now.

David Racey's Pick: Phillies ML