Philadelphia (80-59) vs Milwaukee (86-54)
September 4, 2025 at 04:10 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Milwaukee -130 — Over/Under: +7.5
In this article we will formulate a Phillies vs Brewers prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, September 4th at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies are 80-59 this year after they split the first two games in this series by scores of 10-8 and 3-6. In their game two loss, Philadelphia allowed the first six runs in the game and never got back into it. The Phillies recorded nine hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Wilson, who went 1-3 with one home run and two RBIs in the loss. Philadelphia started Nola, who allowed six hits and six earned runs over 5.0 innings for the loss, while Lazar, Kerkering, and Trivino combined for 3.0 scoreless innings in relief.
Prior to this series, the Phillies won three out of four against the Braves, but lost all three against the Mets before that. Philadelphia has won four of their last six games and they are currently first in the NL East standings. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.85 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 663 runs with a .258 batting average and a .328 on base percentage this season. Kyle Schwarber has led Philadelphia with 49 home runs and 119 RBIs, while Nick Castellanos has added 16 home runs and 61 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Ranger Suarez, who is 10-6 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 131.0 innings pitched this year.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers are 86-54 this season after they won game two by a score of 6-3 on Wednesday night. Milwaukee jumped out to a 5-0 lead in the first inning and they pretty much cruised to the win. The Brewers recorded six hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Collins, who went 1-4 with one home run and three RBIs in the win. Milwaukee started Quintana, who allowed seven hits and three earned runs over 6.1 innings for the win, while Koenig picked up the save.
Prior to this series, the Brewers won two out of three against the Blue Jays and split four games with the Diamondbacks. Milwaukee has won three of their last five games and they are still leading the NL Central standings. The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 3.65 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .232 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 717 runs with a .259 batting average and a .333 on base percentage this season. Christian Yelich has led Milwaukee with 27 home runs and 92 RBIs, while William Contreras has added 17 home runs and 69 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Freddy Peralta, who is 16-5 with a 2.58 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over 153.2 innings pitched this season.
Why the Brewers will beat the Phillies
The Brewers have won 11 of their last 12 games against NL East opponents.
The Phillies have lost six of their last seven games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
The Brewers have covered the run line each of their last eight Thursday day games against teams that held a winning record.
The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
The Phillies have lost the first inning in four of their last five games as road underdogs.
The Brewers have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games at American Family Field.
The Brewers have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games at American Family Field.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Brewers’ last four day games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Four of the Phillies’ last five road games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Brewers’ last five day games against NL East opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last four day games at American Family Field.
Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts
Brice Turang has hit a home run in three of the Brewers’ last four games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
Freddy Peralta has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances with the Brewers as favorites against NL East opponents.
William Contreras has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 home appearances against the Phillies.
Freddy Peralta has recorded a win in six of his last seven appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last five games as underdogs against NL opponents.
Ranger Suarez has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances with the Phillies as underdogs.
Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 15 games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
Bryson Stott has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Phillies as road underdogs.
Phillies vs Brewers Prediction
Both of these teams come into this contest leading their respective divisions and they will both be looking for the series win here. The Phillies are 35-36 on the road this year, while the Brewers are 46-25 at home. Milwaukee has scored 18 runs in their last three games and they are facing Suarez, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. Philadelphia has scored 13 runs so far in the series and they will face Peralta, who has allowed zero earned runs in four consecutive outings. Take the Brewers to get another win here.