Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction MLB Picks 9/22/24

In this article, we will formulate a Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, September 22nd at Citi Field in New York. To formulate this prediction for game four in the series, we will examine:

• The Phillies’ recent form and recent player performance 
• The Mets’ recent form and recent play performance
• Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Philadelphia
• Recent Betting trends and streaks involving New York
• Recent betting trends in games played between Philadelphia and New York
• A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between Philadelphia and New York

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 92-63 this year and they have lost three of their last four games. Philadelphia won game two in this series by a score of 12-2 on Friday night.  Prior to this series, the Phillies lost two out of three against the Brewers, won two out of three against the Mets, and swept the Rays. Philadelphia is 4-5 in their last nine games and they are first in the NL East. 

The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.78 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a .241 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 754 runs with a .258 batting average and a .326 on-base percentage. Bryce Harper is batting .285 with 29 home runs and 86 RBI’s for the Phillies this season. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 86-69 this season and they have won five of their last six games. New York won games one and three in this series by scores of 10-6 and 6-3. Prior to this series, the Mets swept the Nationals, lost two out of three against the Phillies, and won two out of three against the Blue Jays. New York is 7-3 in their last ten games and they are second in the NL East. 

The New York pitching staff has a 3.94 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .230 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 748 runs with a .248 batting average and a .322 on-base percentage. Pete Alonso is batting .245 with 34 home runs and 88 RBI’s for the Mets this season.

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Zack Wheeler, who is 16-6 with a 2.56 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP over 186.2 innings pitched this season. Wheeler has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Tylor Megill, who is 4-5 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 68.1 innings pitched this year. Megill has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts. 

Why the Phillies will beat the Mets

• The Phillies have won five of their last six night games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Mets have lost nine of their last 10 Sunday games.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five Sunday games at Citi Field.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in three of their last four road games against the Mets following a loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Phillies’ last nine games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Mets’ last eight night games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last three games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last nine Sunday games.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one Single in nine of the Mets’ last 10 games.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Mets’ last four home games against NL East opponents.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 14 appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Francisco Lindor has scored at least one run in eight of his last nine appearances in night games.
• Brandon Nimmo has hit a home run in two of the Mets’ last three night games against opponents that held a winning record.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Alec Bohm has hit a home run in two of the Phillies’ last three night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances in night games.
• Bryson Stott has recorded at least one Single in each of his last nine road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded eight or more strikeouts in three of his last four road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 12 appearances in night games.
• Nick Castellanos has scored a run in each of the Phillies’ last five games against the Mets.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against NL opponents.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one RBI in three of the Phillies’ last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction 

New York continues to be one of the best teams in the MLB over the last two months and they will look for the series win here. The Mets are 45-35 at home this year, while the Phillies are 40-37 on the road. The Phillies have a huge lead in the NL East and they are starting Zack Wheeler, who has been an elite starting pitcher over the last three months. Megill has been solid for the Mets recently, but I trust Wheeler way more. Take Philadelphia to get the win here.