Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction 7/20/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate an Orioles vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Monday, July 20th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 49-51 this year after they swept the Astros in three games by scores of 3-2, 4-2, and 5-2. In game three, Baltimore had their lead cut to 2-1 in the third inning, but they scored the next three runs to pull away with the win. The Orioles recorded six hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Taveras, who went 1-4 with two RBIs. Young allowed five hits and one earned run over 7.0 innings for the win, while Wolfram picked up the save. Prior to that series, Baltimore swept the Royals in three games, but lost two out of three against the Cubs before that. 

This season, Baltimore has a 4.21 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and a .251 opponent batting average, while they have scored 459 runs with a .237 batting average and a .321 on base percentage. Pete Alonso has led the Orioles with 21 home runs and 66 RBIs, while Gunnar Henderson has added 17 home runs and 44 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Shane Baz, who is 4-9 with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP over 111.2 innings pitched this year. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 50-48 this season after they swept the Rays in four games by scores of 10-0, 5-3, 7-6, and 6-1. In game four, Boston scored six runs in the first five innings and cruised to another easy win. The Red Sox recorded six hits in the game and they were led by Contreras, who went 1-3 with one home run and two RBIs. Gray allowed five hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings for the win, while Watson threw a scoreless inning in relief. Prior to that series, Boston swept the Mets in three games and swept the White Sox in three games. 

This season, Boston has a 3.53 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and a .237 opponent batting average, while they have scored 413 runs with a .244 batting average and a .315 on base percentage. Willson Contreras has led the Red Sox with 22 home runs and 64 RBIs, while Jarren Duran has added 13 home runs and 48 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Payton Tolle, who is 5-6 with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over 84.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last 13 games.
• The Orioles have lost 11 of their last 12 road games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 road games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 night games against American League opponents.
• The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight Monday night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Orioles have lost the first inning in three of their last four games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs.

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The underdogs have won seven of the last eight games between the Orioles and Red Sox at Fenway Park.
• The Red Sox have lost five of their last six games as home favorites against the Orioles following a win.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last seven games against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games at Fenway Park against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games against the Red Sox at Fenway Park.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Orioles’ last four road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Three of the last four games between the Orioles and Red Sox at Fenway Park have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in six of the Red Sox’s last seven games against American League opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in 15 of the Orioles’ last 18 night games against AL East opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Willson Contreras has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox’s last two games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Payton Tolle has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances.
• Willson Contreras has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Willson Contreras ranks T10th in the league in Home Runs (22) this season.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Shane Baz has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances with the Orioles as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Pete Alonso has recorded at least one hit in each of his eight previous appearances with his team as a road underdog against the Red Sox.
• Colton Cowser has hit a home run in each of the Orioles’ last two games against AL East opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Red Sox rank 3rd in the league for walks allowed this season (284).
• The Red Sox rank 3rd in the league for walks allowed this season (284).
• The Orioles rank 4th in the league for walks this season (388).
• The Orioles rank 4th in the league for walks this season (388).

Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction 

Boston comes into this matchup after a great series sweep over the Rays and they are the hottest team in the MLB. The Red Sox are 21-27 at home this year, while the Orioles are 21-26 on the road. Baltimore is also on a nice winning streak and they have allowed two runs or fewer in five straight. The O’s are starting Baz, who has allowed 2, 3, 2, 5, and 3 earned runs over his last five starts, while Tolle has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four outings. Boston is going to lose eventually, but I like them to win again here.

David Racey's Pick: Red Sox ML