Orioles vs Nationals Prediction 5/17/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate an Orioles vs Nationals prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, May 17th at Nationals Park in Washington, DC. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 20-26 this year after they lost the first two games in this series by scores of 2-3 and 3-13. In game two, Baltimore cut the deficit to 4-3 in the seventh inning, but they allowed seven runs in the bottom of the seventh to seal the loss. The Orioles recorded 10 hits in the game and they were led by Basallo and O’Neill, who both had solo home runs. Bassitt allowed six hits and four earned runs over 5.0 innings for the loss, while Akin allowed six earned runs in relief. Prior to this series, Baltimore won two out of three against the Yankees, but lost two out of three against the Athletics before that. 

This season, Baltimore has a 4.77 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP and a .261 opponent batting average, while they have scored 198 runs with a .231 batting average and a .315 on base percentage. Jeremiah Jackson has led the Orioles with six home runs and 25 RBIs, while Pete Alonso has added eight home runs and 23 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Brandon Young, who is 3-1 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP over 26.0 innings pitched this year. 

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals are 23-23 this season after they won game two by a score of 13-3 on Saturday afternoon. Washington scored the first four runs in the game and they poured it on in the seventh inning in the blowout win. The Nationals recorded 13 hits in the game and they were led by Ruiz, who went 3-5 with one home run and five RBIs. Cavalli allowed eight hits and three earned runs over 6.1 innings for the win, while Poulin picked up a hold. Prior to this series, Washington won two out of three against the Reds, but lost two out of three against the Marlins before that. 

This season, Washington has a 4.90 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and a .256 opponent batting average, while they have scored 252 runs with a .244 batting average and a .324 on base percentage. CJ Abrams has led the Nationals with nine home runs and 37 RBIs, while James Wood has added 12 home runs and 29 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Washington is Miles Mikolas, who is 1-3 with a 7.00 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP over 36.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Nationals have won each of their last seven games as underdogs against the Orioles.
• The Orioles have lost nine of their last 10 games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as favorites against NL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs against the Orioles.
• The Nationals have led after 3 innings in six of their last eight games against the Orioles.
• The Nationals have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games against the Orioles.

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Nationals have lost each of their last six Sunday day home games against American League opponents.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six Sunday home games against American League opponents.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in three of their last four games as road favorites after playing the previous day.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Orioles’ last eight games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Nine of the last 11 games between the Orioles and Nationals at Nationals Park have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Orioles’ last six day games against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Nationals’ last eight games as underdogs against American League opponents.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• Miles Mikolas has recorded four or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Miles Mikolas has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with his team as a home underdog against AL opponents .
• Keibert Ruiz has hit a home run in each of his last two home appearances.
• Keibert Ruiz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six home appearances against AL East opponents that held a losing record.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Jordan Westburg has hit a home run in three of his last five road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Taylor Ward has recorded at least one hit in 18 of his last 19 appearances with his team as a road favorite.

Orioles vs Nationals Prediction 

Washington comes into this matchup after winning four of their last five games and they have scored at least seven runs in three of their last five. The Nationals are 8-13 at home this year, while the Orioles are 8-14 on the road. Baltimore has lost three of their last four games and they have scored three runs or fewer in four of their last five. The Orioles are starting Young, who has allowed 3+ earned runs in three of his last four starts, while Mikolas has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five outings, but hasn’t been pitching very deep into games. Take the over here, as both offenses should get going.

David Racey's Pick: Over 10.5