New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres Prediction 9/5/2026 Today’s MLB Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Aug 26, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees first baseman Ben Rice (22) hits a solo home run during the first inning against the Houston Astros at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
New York Yankees
San Diego Padres
Team Records
80-61
74-67
Spread
-1.5 155
+1.5 -189
Moneyline
-106
-113
Total
Over 8 (-102)
Under 8 (-118)
Where
Petco Park, San Diego, California
When
Saturday, September 5, 2026
Time
07:15 PM EDT
TV
MLB.TV
The New York Yankees and the San Diego Padres meet Saturday in MLB action from Petco Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The New York Yankees will send out Carlos Rodon and Rodon is 4-3 with a 3.20 ERA and 63 strikeouts this season. Robbie Ray will start for the Padres here and is 11-7 with a 3.14 ERA and 126 strikeouts this season.
New York Yankees Recap
The New York Yankees come into this game looking to bounce back from their 3-2 loss at the hands of the Padres on Friday to sit at 80-61 this season. After this series, the Yankees wil take on the Colorado Rockies in a matchup at home.
Yanees Have Two-Game Win Streak Snapped
Entering Friday, Ben Rice has 127 hits with 22 doubles, 35 home runs and 87 RBIs and Aaron Judge has 53 hits with 10 doubles, 17 home runs and 38 RBIs. Cody Bellinger also has 112 hits with 22 doubles, 3 triples, 12 home runs and 60 RBIs. Jazz Chisholm Jr. also has 104 hits with 16 doubles, 19 home runs and 55 RBIs as well on the year. Trent Grisham has 88 hits with 19 doubles, 18 home runs and 59 RBIs while Jose Caballero has 89 hits with 13 home runs and 47 RBIs.
San Diego Padres Recap
The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to build on their win over New York from Friday to sit at 74-67 this season. After this series, the Padres will take on the Washington Nationals in a series at home.
Padres Snap Two-Game Slide
Going into Friday, Jackson Merrill has 128 hits with 22 doubles, 22 home runs and 70 RBIs while Gavin Sheets has 75 hits with 15 doubles, 16 home runs and 46 RBIs as well on the year. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 154 hits with 29 doubles, 19 home runs and 70 RBIs and Xander Bogaerts has 99 hits with 14 doubles, 11 home runs and 51 RBIs. Manny Machado also has 111 hits with 21 doubles, 24 home runs and 75 RBIs as well on the year.
New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres Betting Trends: September 5, 2026
Probable Starting Pitcher: Robbie Ray Record this season: 11-7 ERA: 3.14
Home Record: 6-2
Last 5 against Yankees: 1-3
Why the San Diego Padres will win
The Padres have won each of their last six home games against AL opponents.
The Yankees have lost five of their last six road games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last seven day games against AL East opponents.
The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
The Padres have led after 3 innings in four of their last five home day games.
Probable Starting Pitcher: Carlos Rodon Record this season: 4-3 ERA: 3.20
Road Record: 3-1
Last 5 against Padres: 2-2
Why the New York Yankees will win
The Yankees have won each of their last six games following a loss.
The Padres have lost four of their last five games as favorites against AL East opponents.
The Padres have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 games as favorites against AL East opponents.
The Yankees have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games after going to extra innings.
The Yankees have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as underdogs against NL West opponents.
The Yankees have led after 3 innings in four of their last five day games against the Padres.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Yankees’ last six road games after going to extra innings have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Each of the Padres’ last four home games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of Robbie Ray’s last eight home appearances as a starter.
There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Yankees’ last six games against NL opponents.
San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts
Jackson Merrill has hit a home run in four of the Padres’ last five games as home favorites against AL opponents.
Robbie Ray has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his last four home appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres’ last nine games as favorites against AL opponents.
Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks T6th in the league in Steals (31) this season.
New York Yankees Player Prop Facts
Carlos Rodon has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against NL opponents.
Ben Rice has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against NL West opponents.
Spencer Jones has hit a home run in each of the Yankees’ last two games as road underdogs against NL opponents.
Jazz Chisholm ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (40) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The Padres rank T4th in the league for steals this season (138).
The Padres rank 26th in the league for hits this season (1102).
The Yankees rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.23).
The Yankees rank 1st in the league for runs allowed this season (524).
New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres Prediction
I’m on the Yankees here. In this lefty-lefty matchup, I think the Yankees’ lineup is a lot more consistent between southpaws. The Padres managed to steal the win from New York on Friday, but I think New York exacts some revenge here. Give me the Yankees in this one.
