New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction MLB Picks 7/3/24

In this article we will formulate a New York Mets vs Washington Nationals prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, July 3rd at Nationals Park in Washington, DC. To formulate this prediction for game three in the series, we will examine:

• The Mets recent form and recent player performance 
• The Nationals recent form and recent play performance
• Recent Betting trends and streaks involving New York
• Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Washington
• Recent betting trends in games played between New York and Washington
• A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between New York and Washington

Mets Win in Extras Again 

The New York Mets are 42-41 this season and they have won six of their last eight games. New York has won the first two games in this series by scores of 9-7 and 7-2, with both wins coming in extra innings. Prior to this series, the Mets lost two out of three against the Astros, won two out of three against the Cubs, and won two out of three against the Rangers. New York is 14-4 in their last 18 games and they are third in the NL East. 

The New York pitching staff has a 4.13 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a .236 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 409 runs with a .251 batting average and a .323 on base percentage. Pete Alonso is batting .247 with 18 home runs and 48 RBI’s for the Mets this season. New York has scored at least seven runs in five of their last seven games. 

Nationals are Trending in the Wrong Direction 

The Washington Nationals are 39-46 this year and they have lost seven of their last eight games. Washington has dropped the first two games in this series and they have allowed a ton of extra inning runs in the two games. Prior to this series, the Nationals lost two out of three against the Rays, lost all three against the Padres, and won two out of three against the Rockies. Washington is just 4-10 in their last 14 games and they are fourth in the NL East. 

The Washington pitching staff has a 4.00 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .253 opponent batting average. The Nationals offense has scored 350 runs with a .235 batting average and a .304 on base percentage. CJ Abrams is batting .286 with 13 home runs and 43 RBI’s for the Nationals this season. Washington has allowed at least seven runs in five of their last eight games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for New York is Christian Scott, who is 0-2 with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 27.2 innings pitched this year. Scott has not pitched in the MLB since May 30th, but did only allow two earned runs in each of his last two outings. The projected starting pitcher for Washington is Mitchell Parker, who is 5-4 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 78.2 innings pitched this season. Parker has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. 

Why the Nationals will beat the Mets

• The Nationals have won four of their last six games as home underdogs.
• The Mets have lost four of their last six games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 15 games as favorites after going to extra innings.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in four of their last five home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Nationals have led after 3 innings in each of their last five home games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last six games as favorites.

Why the Mets will beat the Nationals

• The Nationals have lost 13 of their last 14 night games at Nationals Park after going to extra innings.
• The Mets have won each of their last six road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have covered the run line in eight of their last nine road games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine night games at Nationals Park following an extra innings loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Nationals’ last six night games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Mets’ last five games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last five night games at Nationals Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Nationals’ last four home games.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• Lane Thomas has hit a home run in three of the Nationals’ last five home games against NL East opponents.
• Lane Thomas has scored at least one run in each of the Nationals’ last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Luis Garcia has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances at Nationals Park against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Joey Gallo has recorded at least one RBI in five of his six previous appearances with his team as an underdog against the Mets.
• Keibert Ruiz has recorded at least one Single in each of his last nine Wednesday night appearances with the Nationals as underdogs.
• Keibert Ruiz has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 10 Wednesday night appearances with the Nationals as underdogs.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Nimmo has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances.
• Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one Single in 10 of his last 11 appearances at Nationals Park against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Francisco Lindor has scored at least one run in each of the Mets’ last six night games.
• J.D. Martinez has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Mets as favorites against NL East opponents.
• J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances in night games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one total base in each of his 13 previous road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one hit in each of his 13 previous road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction 

The Mets continue to roll right along, as they have been one of the hottest teams in the MLB over the last few weeks. New York is climbing the NL East standings and they are 21-16 on the road. Washington is just 17-21 at home this year and they have really struggled over the last ten days. The Nationals are starting Mitchell Parker, who has been very solid for them this year. New York is going with Scott, who hasn’t pitched very much in the MLB this year, but has been decent in limited work. The Mets offense is on fire right now and I think we are going to see another higher scoring game. My New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction is for this game to go over the total. 

David Racey's Pick: Over 8.5