New York Mets vs New York Yankees Prediction 5/16/25 MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Yankees prediction for this MLB game on Friday, May 16, at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets (28-16, 11-11 Away) won three consecutive series, beating the Diamondbacks, Cubs, and Pirates. The Mets were on a three-game winning run and opened the series against Pittsburgh with a pair of wins, but couldn’t get a sweep after losing 4-0 in Game 3. It was only the second time this year that the Mets failed to score. Clay Holmes took the loss after allowing four runs on seven hits with four strikeouts and one walk in 6.0 innings.

This season, the Mets average 4.66 runs per game (12th in the MLB) on a .253/.332/.427 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Mets’ staff has a 2.84 ERA (1st) and 1.23 WHIP (12th). Pete Alonso leads the Mets with a .311 batting average, nine home runs, and 36 RBI this season.

Tylor Megill will take the mound for the Mets on Friday. The 29-year-old right-hander has a 3-3 record in eight starts this year with a 3.10 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 40.2 innings.

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees (25-18, 13-8 Home) also won three series in a row, defeating the Padres, Athletics, and Mariners. The last two series came on the road, and the Yanks clinched the one in Seattle with a 3-2 victory in Game 3. Will Warren pitched for 5.0 innings in a no-decision, allowing two runs on four hits with nine strikeouts and one walk. Ian Hamilton was credited with the win.

This year, the Yankees average 5.81 runs per game (2nd in the MLB) on a .263/.347/.481 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Yankees’ staff has a 3.62 ERA (9th) and 1.18 WHIP (8th). Aaron Judge leads the Yankees with a .412 batting average, 15 home runs, and 41 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Yankees is Carlos Rodon, who is 4-3 in nine starts this season, with a 3.29 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 54.2 innings.

Why the Yankees will beat the Mets

• The Mets have lost each of their last seven games as road underdogs against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The Yankees have won four of their last five night games at Yankee Stadium following a win.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games against AL East opponents following a home loss.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last four games as home favorites against NL East opponents following a road win.
• The Yankees have led after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last seven games as road underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Yankees’ last 10 games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last six games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Yankees’ last 10 games as favorites.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Yankees rank T1st in the league for walks this season (173).
• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.209).
• The Mets rank 1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (28).
• The Mets rank 1st in the league for runs allowed this season (140).

Mets vs Yankees Prediction

The Mets won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including the last four. I am going with the Yankees in Game 1 of this series, though. I like Carlos Rodon better than Tylor Megill, who, following a very bright start to the season, allowed 11 runs in his last three starts. Rodon, on the other hand, surrendered six runs in his previous four starts. It’s going to be a tight one, but I am giving a slight advantage to the Yankees because of their starter.

Oliver Zivic's Pick: Yankees ML