| MATCHUP | New York Mets | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 42-59 | 63-37 |
| Spread | +1.5 -167 | -1.5 138 |
| Moneyline | +123 | -149 |
| Total | Over 9 (-102) | Under 9 (-119) |
| Where | American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin | |
| When | Tuesday, July 21, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:40 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Brewers Prediction for this MLB matchup on Tuesday, July 21st in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers Preview
The Milwaukee Brewers have a 63-37 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the NL Central. They have a 33-18 home record and are coming off an 8-3 home win against the Mets. They will face the Rockies and the Giants next.
The Milwaukee Brewers have a .253 batting average this season, .337 OBP and .399 Slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 3.44 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Garrett Mitchell is the team’s best hitter with a .283 batting average. Brice Turang leads the team in RBI with 61, while Jake Bauers adds a team-high 18 home runs.
Brandon Sproat (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he has a 3-4 record, 5.16 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.
New York Mets Preview
The New York Mets have a 42-59 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL East. They have a 21-31 away record and are coming off a 3-8 road loss against the Brewers. They will face the Dodgers and the Braves next.
The New York Mets have a .233 batting average this season, .303 OBP and .380 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.27 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Juan Soto is the team’s best hitter with a .287 batting average, leads the team in RBI with 52, and adds a team-high 21 home runs.
Zac Thornton (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the New York Mets, and he has a 0-1 record, 2.60 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends: July 21, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Brandon Sproat Record this season: 3-4 ERA: 5.16
- Home Record: 2-2
- Last 5 against Mets: –
Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win
- The Mets have lost each of their last eight night games against NL Central opponents.
- The home team has won each of the Brewers’ last seven games.
- The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last eight Tuesday night games against National League opponents.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- The Mets have lost the first inning in three of their last four road games against NL Central opponents.
- The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in eight of their last nine games as road underdogs.
- The Brewers have led after 5 innings in each of their last 13 Tuesday games as home favorites.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Zach Thornton Record this season: 0-1 ERA: 2.60
- Road Record: 0-1
- Last 5 against Brewers: –
Why the New York Mets will win
- The Brewers have lost four of their last five Tuesday games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
- The Mets have won each of their last three road games following a loss.
- The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven home games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The Mets have covered the run line in five of their last six road games against the Brewers following a loss.
Total Runs Facts
- Five of the Mets’ last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Four of the Brewers’ last five games as favorites against the Mets have gone OVER the total runs line.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of Brandon Sproat’s last eight appearances as a starter.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in five of the Mets’ last six games against NL Central opponents.
Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts
- Brandon Sproat has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last six home appearances.
- Brice Turang has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 20 appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
- Andrew Vaughn has hit a home run in seven of his last nine appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a losing record.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Juan Soto has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances with his team as a road underdog against the Brewers.
- Carson Benge has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances in night games.
- Juan Soto ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.407) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Brewers rank T29th in the league for home runs this season (94).
- The Brewers rank T29th in the league for home runs this season (94).
- The Mets rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.303).
- The Mets rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.303).
Mets vs Brewers Prediction
The Brewers have won their last four meetings against the Mets, all of them in Milwaukee. Over is 7-3 in their last 10 meetings.
In this Mets vs Brewers Prediction, the Brewers are coming as -140 home favorites. I like the Brewers in this one at home in a decent price, as they have won four straight and have been one of the best home teams in baseball. The Mets are going for a bullpen game and their relievers have been struggling mightily lately, ranking just 28th in the last 10 games. Sproat has been in good form for the Brewers, so I expect them to get the job done at home in this one.