| MATCHUP | New York Mets | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 36-51 | 50-35 |
| Spread | -1.5 155 | +1.5 -188 |
| Moneyline | -105 | -115 |
| Total | Over 9 (-119) | Under 9 (-101) |
| Where | Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia | |
| When | Friday, July 3, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:15 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
Atlanta Braves Preview
The Atlanta Braves have a 50‑35 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the NL East. They have a 25‑16 home record and are coming off an 11‑5 home defeat against the Cardinals. They will face the Pirates and the Cardinals next.
The Braves have a .246 batting average this season, .311 OBP and .404 Slugging percentage. Atlanta’s pitching staff has a 3.49 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Michael Harris II is the team’s best hitter with a .293 batting average. Matt Olson leads the team in RBI with 52, adding a team‑high 20 home runs.
Grant Holmes (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves, and he has a 4‑4 record, 3.96 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.
New York Mets Preview
The New York Mets have a 36‑51 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL East. They have a 17‑27 road record and are coming off a 9‑3 road defeat against the Blue Jays. They will face the Royals and the Red Sox next.
The Mets have a .229 batting average this season, .298 OBP and .375 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.12 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Juan Soto is the team’s best hitter with a .293 batting average, also adding a team‑high 17 home runs. Bo Bichette leads the team in RBI with 46.
Christian Scott (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 2‑0 record, 3.20 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves Betting Trends: July 3, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Grant Holmes Record this season: 4-4 ERA: 3.96
- Home Record: 3-3
- Last 5 against Mets: 0-1
Why the Atlanta Braves will win
- The Mets have lost each of their last 15 games as underdogs against National League opponents following a loss.
- The favorites have won each of the Mets’ last eight games.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- The Braves have covered the run line in five of their last six games following a home loss.
- The Mets have lost the first inning in each of their last four games as road underdogs.
- The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games at Truist Park against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games as road underdogs.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Christian Scott Record this season: 2-0 ERA: 3.20
- Road Record: 1-0
- Last 5 against Braves: 0-1
Why the New York Mets will win
- The Braves have lost four of their last five games as favorites after playing the previous day.
- The underdogs have won six of the Braves’ last eight games at Truist Park.
- The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last nine Friday night games as road underdogs against the Braves.
- The Braves have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight home games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Braves have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last six night games against the Braves.
- The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four home games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Braves’ last six night games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Mets’ last three night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Mets’ last nine night games against NL East opponents.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the last four games between the Mets and Braves at Truist Park.
Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts
- Mauricio Dubon has hit a home run in three of the Braves’ last four home games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Grant Holmes has recorded five or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances with the Braves as favorites against NL opponents.
- Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 20 home appearances against the Mets.
- Matt Olson ranks T9th in the league in Home Runs (20) this season.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Carson Benge has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last four games as road underdogs.
- Christian Scott has recorded five or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances.
- Francisco Alvarez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Juan Soto ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.554) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Braves rank 3rd in the league for ERA this season (3.49).
- The Braves rank 3rd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.226).
- The Mets rank 30th in the league for doubles this season (105).
- The Mets rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.298).
Mets vs Braves Prediction
Both teams are tied 5-5 in their last 10 meetings but the Nationals are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings in Washington.
In this Mets vs Braves Prediction, the Nationals are coming as -140 home favorites. Both teams have been struggling lately, as they both are 2-8 in their last 10 games but I am with the Braves at home in this one. Neither pitcher stands out but the Braves have the best bullpen in baseball and they have a superior offense, ranking 9th in the league while the Mets are just 28th. Take the Braves to win this one at home.