New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 5/8/2026 Today’s MLB Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Apr 21, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll (7) against the Chicago White Sox at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks
Team Records
14-23
17-19
Spread
-1.5 123
+1.5 -149
Moneyline
-131
+109
Total
Over 8 (-118)
Under 8 (-102)
Where
Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona
When
Friday, May 8, 2026
Time
09:40 PM EDT
TV
MLB.TV
The New York Mets and the Arizona Diamondbacks meet Friday in MLB action from Chase Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The New York Mets will send out Nolan McLean for the start here and McLean is 1-2 with a 2.97 ERA and 51 strikeouts this season. This will be McLean’s second career start against the Diamondbacks. Ryne Nelson will start for Arizona and is 1-3 with a 6.61 ERA and 28 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Diamondbacks, Nelson is 1-3 with a 6.85 ERA and 15 strikeouts.
New York Mets Recap
The New York Mets come into this game looking to bounce back from a 6-2 loss at the hands of the Rockies to fall to 14-23 this season. After this series, the Mets will head home for a series against the Detroit Tigers.
Mets Have Three-Game Win Streak Snapped
Luis Robert Jr. has 19 hits including 2 home runs and 8 RBIs while Juan Soto has 24 hits with 4 doubles, 4 home runs and 10 RBIs. Brett Baty has 22 hits with 5 doubles, a triple and 12 RBIs while Francisco Lindor has 21 hits with 2 doubles and a pair of triples as well. Marcus Semien also has 30 hits with 6 doubles, 2 home runs and 13 RBIs as well this season. Bo Bichette also has 36 hits with 5 doubles, 2 home runs and 16 RBIs as well this season. Francisco Alvarez has also added 25 hits with 4 doubles and 4 home runs this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks Recap
The Arizona Diamondbacks come into this game looking to bounce back from a 4-2 loss at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates last time out to sit at 17-19 this season. After this series, the Diamondbacks will head on the road for a series against the Texas Rangers.
Diamondbacks Lose 6 Of Last 7
Corbin Carroll has 32 hits including 7 doubles, 4 triples, 5 home runs and 20 RBIs while Alek Thomas has logged 9 doubles with 2 home runs and 10 RBIs as well this season. Ketel Marte has 29 hits with 3 doubles, 5 home runs and 13 RBIs and Geraldo Perdomo has 26 hits, with 5 doubles, 3 triples, 2 home runs and 11 RBIs as well this season. Nolan Arenado also has 31 hits with 3 doubles, 5 home runs and 17 RBIs and Jose Fernandez has 28 hits with 3 home runs and 12 RBIs this season. Ildemaro Vargas also has 41 hits with 7 doubles, 2 triples, 6 home runs and 22 RBIs.
New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Trends: May 8, 2026
Probable Starting Pitcher: Ryne Nelson Record this season: 1-3 ERA: 6.61
Home Record: 0-2
Last 5 against Mets: 1-2
Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win
The Diamondbacks have won four of their last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
The Mets have lost each of their last six road games against National League opponents following a loss.
The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last seven games against NL East opponents.
The Mets have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
The Diamondbacks have won the first inning in four of their last five night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in five of their last six home games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in each of their last three night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
Probable Starting Pitcher: Nolan McLean Record this season: 1-2 ERA: 2.97
Road Record: 1-0
Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 0-1
Why the New York Mets will win
The Mets have won each of their last six road games against the Diamondbacks following a loss.
The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last six games after playing the previous day.
The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven home games against NL East opponents following a loss.
The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last six road games against the Diamondbacks following a loss.
The Diamondbacks have lost the first inning in four of their last five night games against NL East opponents.
The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs.
The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last nine games as underdogs.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Mets’ last seven road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Each of the last four games between the Mets and Diamondbacks at Chase Field have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last eight games at Chase Field.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Mets’ last eight night games.
Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts
Ildemaro Vargas has hit at least one home run in each of the Diamondbacks’ last two night games against opponents that held a losing record.
Gabriel Moreno has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
Ildemaro Vargas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.360) this season.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
Marcus Semien has hit a home run in each of his last three road appearances against the Diamondbacks after playing the previous day.
Marcus Semien has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight road appearances against the Diamondbacks after playing the previous day.
Nolan McLean ranks T10th in the league for total Strikeouts (51) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for triples this season (11).
The Diamondbacks rank 29th in the league for walks this season (99).
The Mets rank 30th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.351).
The Mets rank 29th in the league for runs scored this season (134).
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction
I’m on the Mets here. I just can’t trust Ryne Nelson at home, as he has an ERA over 14 at home this season and the Mets have shown signs of improvement offensively in recent weeks. I think McLean’s the better starting option by a mile and I think we get a Mets W in this one so give me New York here.
