Cubs vs Pirates Prediction 5/1/25 MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Cubs vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, May 1st at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 18-13 this season, and they have split the first two games in this series by scores of 9-0 and 3-4. In their game two loss, the Cubs led 3-2 in the fifth inning, but they allowed two in the seventh inning. Chicago recorded nine hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Happ and Tucker, who both had one RBI in the loss. The Cubs started Boyd, who allowed six hits and two earned runs over 5.0 innings, while Thielbar allowed two hits and one earned run in relief for the loss. 

Prior to this series, the Cubs lost two out of three against the Phillies, but did win two against the Dodgers before that. Chicago has lost three of their last four games, and they are currently first in the NL Central standings. The Chicago pitching staff has a 4.05 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and a .250 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 184 runs with a .263 batting average and a .341 on-base percentage this season. Kyle Tucker has led Chicago with seven home runs and 27 RBIs, while Seiya Suzuki has added seven home runs and 25 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Colin Rea, who is 1-0 with a 0.96 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over 18.2 innings pitched this season. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 12-19 this year after they won game two by a score of 4-3 on Wednesday. Pittsburgh led 2-0 in the fourth inning, but they needed two runs in the seventh to take the lead for the win. The Pirates recorded nine hits in the game, and they were led by McCutchen, who went 1-3 with two RBIs in the win. Pittsburgh started Mlodzinski, who allowed six hits and two earned runs over 4.0 innings, while Ferguson was credited with the win out of the bullpen. 

Prior to this series, the Pirates lost two out of three against the Dodgers, but did win two out of three against the Angels before that. Pittsburgh has lost four of its last six games, and they are currently last in the NL Central standings. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.11 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .238 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 106 runs with a .226 batting average and a .305 on-base percentage this season. Oneil Cruz has led Pittsburgh with eight home runs and 16 RBIs, while Bryan Reynolds has added three home runs and 14 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Paul Skenes, who is 3-2 with a 2.39 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP over 37.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Pirates will beat the Cubs 

• The Cubs have lost each of their last three games after playing the previous day.
• The home team has won three of the Pirates’ last four games.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in four of their last five day games against the Cubs at PNC Park following a win.

Why the Cubs will beat the Pirates

• The Cubs have won each of their last six games as road underdogs against the Pirates.
• The Pirates have lost each of their last seven games against the Cubs following a home win.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as road underdogs against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five day games.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in each of their last five games against opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Pirates’ last five day games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Cubs’ last four games as underdogs against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cubs’ last six games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Pirates’ last 13 games as favorites against NL Central opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one RBI in six of the Pirates’ last seven games as home favorites against the Cubs.
• Andrew McCutchen has recorded a Double in each of the Pirates’ last three games at PNC Park against opponents that held a winning record.
• Ji-Hwan Bae has scored a run in each of his last four appearances in day games against NL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last three games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last 11 games as favorites against the Cubs.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one Single in each of the Pirates’ last 10 games against opponents that held a winning record.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Tucker has recorded at least one RBI in each of his five previous appearances against the Pirates.
• Ian Happ has recorded a Double in each of the Cubs’ last five games as road underdogs against the Pirates.
• Dansby Swanson has scored at least one run in each of his last seven appearances at PNC Park.
• Seiya Suzuki has hit at least one home run in four of the Cubs’ last five road games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Nico Hoerner has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last 10 games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Nico Hoerner has recorded at least one Single in each of the Cubs’ last eight Thursday games.

Cubs vs Pirates Prediction 

Pittsburgh was able to snap their small losing streak with a win on Wednesday night, and they will turn to Paul Skenes here. Skenes has been very solid this year, and he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. Chicago is going with Colin Rea, who has allowed a total of two earned runs in three starts, but has only gone five innings in one of them. I know both pitchers have very solid numbers on the season, but I don’t have faith that Rea can go deep into the game, and this Chicago team has been very high scoring. Take the over here. 

David Racey's Pick: Over 7.5