Cubs vs Pirates Prediction 5/25/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Cubs vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Monday, May 25th at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 29-24 this season after they lost all three against the Astros by scores of 2-4, 0-3, and 5-8. In game three, Chicago led 3-1 in the second inning, but they allowed seven of the last nine runs for the loss. The Cubs recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Busch, who went 2-4 with two RBIs. Imanaga allowed seven hits and seven earned runs over 6.0 innings for the loss, while Thielbar allowed one earned run in relief. Prior to that series, Chicago lost all three against the Brewers and two out of three against the White Sox. 

This season, Chicago has a 4.12 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and a .236 opponent batting average, while they have scored 253 runs with a .238 batting average and a .336 on base percentage. Nico Hoerner has led the Cubs with four home runs and 31 RBIs, while Dansby Swanson has added seven home runs and 27 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Ben Brown, who is 1-2 with a 2.09 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP over 38.2 innings pitched this season. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 27-26 this year after they lost two out of three against the Blue Jays by scores of 2-6, 2-5, and 4-1. In game three, Pittsburgh took a 1-0 lead in the first inning and never looked back in the win. The Pirates recorded six hits in the game and they were led by Valdez, who went 1-3 with one home run and two RBIs. Keller allowed four hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings for the win, while Soto picked up the save. Prior to that series, Pittsburgh won two out of three against the Cardinals, but lost all three against the Phillies before that. 

This season, Pittsburgh has a 3.84 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and a .226 opponent batting average, while they have scored 256 runs with a .249 batting average and a .332 on base percentage. Oneil Cruz has led the Pirates with 11 home runs and 34 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added 13 home runs and 32 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Carmen Mlodzinski, who is 4-3 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over 50.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Cubs have lost each of their last seven games as favorites following a loss.
• The underdogs have won each of the Cubs’ last four games.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in seven of their last eight day games following a road win.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games against NL Central opponents.

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won each of their last nine games at PNC Park following a loss.
• The Pirates have lost each of their last six games against the Cubs at PNC Park following a win.
• The road team has covered the run line in 13 of the last 14 games between the Cubs and Pirates.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine home games following a win.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five Monday games as underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Cubs’ last six day games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Pirates’ last five day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Pirates’ last eight day games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cubs’ last four games as favorites against National League opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in 17 of his last 19 appearances in day games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Marcell Ozuna has hit a home run in three of his last six appearances with his team as a home underdog against the Cubs.
• Oneil Cruz ranks T3rd in the league in Steals (16) this season.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Alex Bregman has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances at PNC Park.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine road appearances after playing the previous day.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank 4th in the league for runs scored this season (256).
• The Pirates rank 4th in the league for RBIs this season (245).
• The Cubs rank 29th in the league for home runs allowed this season (73).
• The Cubs rank 6th in the league for runs scored this season (253).

Cubs vs Pirates Prediction 

Chicago comes into this matchup really struggling over the last few series and they have scored two runs or fewer in four of their last five games. The Cubs are 11-13 on the road this year, while the Pirates are 13-13 at home. Pittsburgh has won three of their last five games and they have allowed two runs or fewer in all three of those wins. The Pirates are starting Mlodzinski, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts, while Brown has allowed three earned runs in his last 13.0 innings. Both starters have been pretty good, but Brown has been elite at limiting baserunners. Take the Cubs here.

David Racey's Pick: Cubs ML