| MATCHUP | Cleveland Guardians | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 85-77 | 98-64 |
| Spread | +1.5 -157 | -1.5 130 |
| Moneyline | +142 | -172 |
| Total | Over 6.5 (-122) | Under 6.5 (101) |
| Where | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida | |
| When | Monday, October 12, 2026 | |
| Time | 08:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | TBS | |
Tampa Bay Rays Preview
The Tampa Bay Rays finished the regular season with a 98-64 record and were placed 1st in the AL East. They have a 55-26 home record and are coming off a 4-3 road win against the Yankees.
The Tampa Bay Rays have a .211 batting average this postseason, .316 OBP and .295 Slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has a 1.67 ERA and 0.70 WHIP. Jonathan Aranda is the team’s best hitter with a .333 batting average, adding a team-high 2 RBI and 1 home run.
Drew Rasmussen (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 1-0 record, 0.00 ERA and 0.38 WHIP in the postseason.
Cleveland Guardians Preview
The Cleveland Guardians finished the regular season with an 85-77 record and were placed 1st in the AL Central. They have a 44-37 road record and are coming off a 2-0 home win against the White Sox.
The Cleveland Guardians have a .213 batting average this postseason, .330 OBP and .350 Slugging percentage. Cleveland’s pitching staff has a 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Patrick Bailey is the team’s best hitter with a .333 batting average. Jose Ramirez leads the team in RBI with 7, adding a team-high 2 home runs.
Foster Griffin (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Guardians, and he has a 1-0 record, 3.38 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in the postseason.
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends: October 12, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Drew Rasmussen Record this season (inc. playoffs): 17-5 ERA: 2.55
- Home Record: 10-3
- Last 5 against Guardians: 1-1
Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win
- The Guardians have lost each of their last seven playoff games following a home win.
- The Rays have won 10 of their last 11 home games.
- The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six playoff games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
- The favorites have covered the run line in five of the Guardians’ last six games at Tropicana Field.
- The Guardians have lost the first inning in three of their last four road games.
- The Guardians have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four road playoff games against AL East opponents.
- The Guardians have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games at Tropicana Field.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Foster Griffin Record this season (inc. playoffs): 16-6 ERA: 3.59
- Road Record: 9-4
- Last 5 against Rays: 0-0
Why the Cleveland Guardians will win
- The Rays have lost four of their last five playoff games as favorites.
- The Guardians have won nine of their last 10 night games against AL opponents.
- The Guardians have covered the run line in each of their last 11 road games.
- The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five playoff games as favorites.
- The Guardians have led after 3 innings in each of their last five Monday night games as underdogs.
- The Guardians have led after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 night games.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the last eight games between the Guardians and Rays have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Four of the Guardians’ last five road games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the last nine games between the Guardians and Rays.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Guardians’ last six games at Tropicana Field.
Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts
- Jonathan Aranda has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Rays as favorites.
- Drew Rasmussen has recorded a win in seven of his last eight appearances with the Rays as favorites against AL opponents.
- Drew Rasmussen has recorded six or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
- Jonathan Aranda has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 home appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Drew Rasmussen ranks T3rd in the league for Wins (16) this season.
Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts
- Jose Ramirez has hit a home run in each of the Guardians’ last two games.
- Foster Griffin has recorded four or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances.
- Nathaniel Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances against the Rays.
- Foster Griffin ranks T6th in the league for Wins (15) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (1145).
- The Rays rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (409).
- The Guardians rank 3rd in the league for strikeouts this season (1530).
- The Guardians rank 27th in the league for home runs this season (162).
Guardians vs Rays Prediction
The Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings against the Guardians and have won their last three meetings in Tampa.
In this Guardians vs Rays Prediction, the Rays are coming as -165 home favorites. I like the Rays at home in the opener of the ALCS, as they are coming off a series sweep against the Yankees and had three extra days of rest, while the Guardians are coming off a total comeback against the White Sox while they were down 0-2 and this is a big letdown spot. The Rays have swept the Guardians in their only regular season series at home with a combined 15-3 score, they have a better bullpen ERA in the playoffs and Drew Rasmussen has been red-hot, having given up one run or less in each of his last five starts. Take the Rays to win.