Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction 5/18/25 MLB Picks

The Cleveland Guardians and the Cincinnati Reds meet Sunday in MLB action from Great American Ballpark. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Cleveland Guardians will start Luis Ortiz here, and Ortiz is 2-4 with a 4.78 ERA and 49 strikeouts this season. In his career, Ortiz is 1-0 with a 0.51 ERA and 17 strikeouts against the Reds. Andrew Abbott will start this one for Cincinnati and is 2-0 with a 2.10 ERA and 38 strikeouts this season. In his career, Abbott is 1-1 with a 6.14 ERA and 6 strikeouts against Cleveland.

Cleveland Guardians Recap

The Cleveland Guardians come into this game looking to bounce back from a 4-1 loss at the hands of the Reds on Saturday to fall to 25-20 on the year. After this series, the Guardians will head on the road for a division series against the Minnesota Twins.

Guardians Lose Three In A Row

Steven Kwan leads the Guardians with 56 hits as part of a .318 batting average and 4 home runs, 9 doubles, and 17 RBIs. Kyle Manzardo has 31 hits with 4 doubles, 2 triples, 10 home runs, and a team-high 25 RBIs this year. Gabriel Arias has 8 doubles but also 42 strikeouts, and Manzardo has a team-high 43 strikeouts so far this season. Arias has also added 4 home runs and 19 RBIs, and Jose Ramirez has chipped in 9 home runs and 23 RBIs.

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The Reds have lost each of their last nine games as home favorites against AL Central opponents following a win.
• The underdogs have won four of the Guardians’ last five games.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 games as home favorites against AL Central opponents following a win.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Jose Ramirez has hit a home run in three of the Guardians’ last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Guardians’ last six day games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight appearances with the Guardians as underdogs.
• Jose Ramirez has scored at least one run in six of the Guardians’ last seven games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 Sunday appearances with the Guardians as underdogs.
• Steven Kwan ranks T4th in the league in Hits (56) this season.

Cincinnati Reds Recap

The Cincinnati Reds will be out to build on their victory over the Guardians on Saturday to improve their record to 23-24 on the year. After this series, the Reds will go on the road for a division series of their own against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Reds Win Three Straight

Elly De La Cruz has a team-high 46 hits with 8 home runs, 31 RBIs, and 15 stolen bases, while TJ Friedl has 44 hits with 7 doubles and 17 RBIs with 8 stolen bases. Gavin Lux has added 43 hits with a team-high 11 doubles and 19 RBIs, while Spencer Steer has 4 home runs and 12 RBIs, and Matt McLain has added 6 homers, 16 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases as well on the year. Jose Trevino’s also chipped in 11 doubles this season.

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The home team has won each of the last five games between the Guardians and Reds.
• The Guardians have lost each of their last eight games as underdogs against the Reds following a loss.
• The Reds have covered the run line in seven of their last eight home games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games at Great American Ball Park.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Will Benson has hit a home run in each of the Reds’ last three games against AL Central opponents.
• Spencer Steer has recorded a Double in three of the Reds’ last four games as favorites.
• Elly De La Cruz has scored at least one run in each of the Reds’ last six games as favorites.
• Santiago Espinal has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances in day games against AL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Spencer Steer has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 10 home games.
• Jeimer Candelario has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances against the Guardians.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks 4th in the league in Steals (15) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Reds’ last seven games against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Guardians’ last four day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction

I’m on the under in this game. Luis Ortiz has not been my go-to option in this Cleveland rotation, but I was stunned to see his career numbers in three starts against Cincinnati. A 0.51 ERA?! I think he can keep the Reds down for a little bit before handing it over to a really good Guardians bullpen. On the other side, Abbott is arguably the best arm the Reds have, and he’s a rare breed that actually pitches better in the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ballpark, and I think we have a lower-scoring game on our hands once again, similar to Saturday’s result. Give me the under here.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Under 9