Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction 9/11/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

Nikos Lagouretos

3 minutes ago

Sep 5, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Reds pitcher Andrew Abbott (41) throws against the Milwaukee Brewers during the first inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Tanner Pearson-Imagn Images

MATCHUP	Cincinnati Reds	Milwaukee Brewers
Team Records	69-77	91-56
Spread	+1.5 -143	-1.5 119
Moneyline	+157	-192
Total	Over 8 (-102)	Under 8 (-118)
Where	American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
When	Friday, September 11, 2026
Time	07:40 PM EDT
TV	MLB.TV

In this article, we will formulate a Reds vs Brewers Prediction for this MLB matchup on Friday, September 11th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers have a 91-56 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the NL Central. They have a 50-25 home record and are coming off an 8-6 home win against the Cubs. They will face the Pirates and the Orioles next.

The Milwaukee Brewers have a .257 batting average this season, .339 OBP and .400 Slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 3.54 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Jackson Chourio is the team’s best hitter with a .290 batting average. Brice Turang leads the team in RBI with 86, while Jake Bauers adds a team-high 24 home runs.

Dustin May (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers, and he has a 6-9 record, 4.69 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have a 69-77 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL Central. They have a 33-39 away record and are coming off a 1-14 road loss against the Dodgers. They will face the Dodgers and the Cubs next.

The Cincinnati Reds have a .230 batting average this season, .308 OBP and .397 Slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 4.73 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s best hitter with a .283 batting average. Sal Stewart leads the team in RBI with 107, adding a team-high 31 home runs.

Andrew Abbott (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has a 6-10 record, 4.43 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends: September 11, 2026

Probable Starting Pitcher: Dustin May Record this season: 6-9 ERA: 4.69
Home Record: 4-5
Last 5 against Reds: 0-0

Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win

The Brewers have won each of their last six home games against NL Central opponents.
The Reds have lost four of their last five road games.
The Brewers have covered the run line in five of their last six night games against teams that held a losing record.
The Reds have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games at American Family Field.
The Brewers have won the first inning in nine of their last 10 home games against opponents that held a losing record.
The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five road games against NL Central opponents.
The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last nine road games.

Probable Starting Pitcher: Andrew Abbott Record this season: 6-10 ERA: 4.43
Road Record: 3-5
Last 5 against Brewers: 1-1

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

The Reds have won each of their last six night games against NL Central opponents following a loss.
The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs against NL Central opponents following a loss.
The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in 20 of their last 24 games as favorites against the Reds following a win.
The Reds have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games against the Brewers.
The Reds have won the first inning in three of their last four games against the Brewers.

Total Runs Facts

Seven of the Reds’ last eight games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Four of the last five games between the Reds and Brewers at American Family Field have gone UNDER the total runs line.
There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Brewers’ last eight night games at American Family Field.
There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Reds’ last seven games against NL Central opponents.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

Jackson Chourio has hit a home run in three of the Brewers’ last four home games against NL Central opponents.
Brice Turang has recorded at least one hit in each of the Brewers’ last 11 home games against the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

Elly De La Cruz has hit a home run in each of the Reds’ last five games.
Andrew Abbott has recorded five or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
Sal Stewart has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 24 games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
Sal Stewart ranks T10th in the league in Home Runs (31) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

The Brewers rank T1st in the league for hits this season (1280).
The Brewers rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (137).
The Reds rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.308).
The Reds rank 30th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1396).

Reds vs Brewers Prediction

The Reds are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Brewers but have lost two of their last three visits in Milwaukee.

In this Reds vs Brewers Prediction, the Brewers are coming as -190 home favorites. I don’t like the pitching in this matchup as both starters have a combined 9.22 ERA and both have been shaky at best lately. Both bullpens have also been in terrible shape, with a combined 12.29 ERA in their last 5 games and both teams are a combined 11-5-1 to the over in their last 17 games combined and 3-1 in their last 4 meetings. This total is too low, so take the over 7.5 runs in this one.