| MATCHUP | Cincinnati Reds | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 24-23 | 26-22 |
| Spread | +1.5 -156 | -1.5 129 |
| Moneyline | +133 | -161 |
| Total | Over 8.5 (-117) | Under 8.5 (-103) |
| Where | Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio | |
| When | Sunday, May 17, 2026 | |
| Time | 01:40 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
In this article, we will formulate a Reds vs Guardians Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, May 17th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Cleveland Guardians Preview
The Cleveland Guardians have a 25-22 record this season and are sitting in the first place of the AL Central. They have a 14-10 home record and are coming off a 7-4 home win against the Reds. They will face the Tigers and the Phillies next.
The Guardians have a .229 batting average this season, .323 OBP and .366 Slugging percentage. Cleveland’s pitching staff has a 3.88 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Chase DeLauter is the team’s best hitter with a .278 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 26. Angel Martinez adds a team‑high 8 home runs.
Gavin Williams (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Guardians, and he has a 5-3 record, 3.74 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.
Cincinnati Reds Preview
The Cincinnati Reds have a 24-22 record this season and are sitting in the fifth place of the NL Central. They have a 11-11 away record and are coming off a 4-7 loss on the road against the Guardians. They will face the Phillies and the Cardinals next.
The Reds have a .226 batting average this season, .311 OBP and .392 Slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 4.64 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s best hitter with a .299 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 30 and adding a team‑high 10 home runs.
Brady Singer (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has a 2-3 record, 5.79 ERA and 1.67 WHIP.
Cincinnati Reds @ Cleveland Guardians Betting Trends: May 17, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Gavin Williams Record this season: 5-3 ERA: 3.74
- Home Record: 2-1
- Last 5 against Reds: –
Why the Cleveland Guardians will win
- The Reds have lost each of their last nine road games following a road loss.
- The Guardians have won seven of their last eight day games against the Reds following a win.
- The Guardians have covered the run line in four of their last five home games against National League opponents.
- The Reds have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as underdogs against the Guardians following a loss.
- The Reds have lost the first inning in each of their last three day games against AL Central opponents.
- The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven road day games.
- The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five day games against AL Central opponents.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Brady Singer Record this season: 2-3 ERA: 5.79
- Road Record: 0-2
- Last 5 against Guardians: 1-2
Why the Cincinnati Reds will win
- The Guardians have lost each of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents following a win.
- The Reds have won each of their last four games as underdogs against American League opponents following a loss.
- The Guardians have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven Sunday games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last four games as underdogs against American League opponents following a loss.
- The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games against American League opponents.
- The Guardians have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Reds’ last eight day games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Guardians’ last six games as favorites against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last eight home games against National League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Reds’ last nine games.
Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts
- Jose Ramirez has hit a home run in seven of the Guardians’ last 15 games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
- Jose Ramirez has recorded two or more hits in each of the Guardians’ last four games as favorites against NL opponents.
- Jose Ramirez ranks 1st in the league in Steals (20) this season.
Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts
- Elly De La Cruz has hit a home run in three of the Reds’ last five day games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- Brady Singer has recorded four or more strikeouts in 11 of his last 12 appearances in day games.
- Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 15 road games against AL Central opponents.
- Brady Singer has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against AL Central opponents.
- Sal Stewart is one of only two players to record 10+ Home Runs and 10+ Stolen Bases this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Guardians rank 2nd in the league for steals this season (51).
- The Guardians rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (432).
- The Reds rank 29th in the league for batting average this season (.225).
- The Reds rank 29th in the league for walks allowed this season (217).
Reds vs Guardians Prediction
The Reds are 6-2 in their last 8 meetings against the Guardians but are 3-4 in their last 7 meetings in Cleveland.
In this Reds vs Guardians Prediction, the Guardians are coming as -170 home favorites. Both pitchers in this matchup have been in bad form lately, but Gavin Williams has been solid at home for the Guardians with a 2.39 home ERA, while on the other hand, Singer has been terrible on the road for the Reds with a 7.04 road ERA. The Reds also have a terrible bullpen that ranks 27th in baseball, so I like the Guardians to take care of business at home in this one.