Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction MLB Picks 9/27/24

In this article, we will formulate a Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs prediction for this MLB game on Friday, September 27th at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. To formulate this prediction for game one in the series, we will examine:

• The Reds’ recent form and recent player performance 
• The Cubs’ recent form and recent play performance
• Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Cincinnati
• Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Chicago 
• Recent betting trends in games played between Cincinnati and Chicago
• A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between Cincinnati and Chicago

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 76-83 this year and they have lost three games in a row. Cincinnati is coming off of a series loss against Cleveland, where they lost both games and allowed 11 runs. Prior to that series, the Reds won two out of three against the Pirates, lost two out of three against the Braves, and won two out of three against the Twins. Cincinnati is 5-8 in their last 13 games and they are fourth in the NL Central. 

The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 4.14 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .240 opponent batting average. The Reds’ offense has scored 696 runs with a .232 batting average and a .306 on-base percentage. Elly De La Cruz is batting .261 with 25 home runs and 74 RBIs for the Reds this season.

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 81-78 this season and they have alternated wins and losses over their last six games. Chicago is coming off of a series loss against Philadelphia, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Cubs won three out of four against the Nationals, lost two out of three against the Athletics, and lost two out of three against the Rockies. Chicago is 4-5 in their last nine games and they are tied for second in the NL Central. 

The Chicago pitching staff has a 3.84 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .241 opponent batting average. The Cubs’ offense has scored 732 runs with a .243 batting average and a .318 on-base percentage. Seiya Suzuki is batting .281 with 21 home runs and 73 RBIs for the Cubs this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Nick Martinez, who is 10-6 with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 134.1 innings pitched this year. Martinez has allowed one earned run or fewer in four straight starts. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Jameson Taillon, who is 11-8 with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 158.1 innings pitched this season. Taillon has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts. 

Why the Cubs will beat the Reds

• The Cubs have won each of their last five-day games following a road loss.
• The Reds have lost five of their last six games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in six of their last seven-day games against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games against teams that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Reds’ last eight-day games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Cubs’ last four-day games against National League opponents has gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last three games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last three-day games between the Reds and Cubs at Wrigley Field.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Nico Hoerner has scored at least one run in six of the Cubs’ last seven home games against the Reds.
• Dansby Swanson has hit a home run in four of the Cubs’ last six games against NL Central opponents.
• Dansby Swanson has recorded at least one RBI in six of the Cubs’ last seven games against NL Central opponents.
• Dansby Swanson has recorded at least one Double in four of the Cubs’ last five games against the Reds.
• Seiya Suzuki has recorded at least one Single in 10 of his last 11 appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Dansby Swanson has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine appearances against NL opponents.
• Dansby Swanson has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against NL opponents.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• TJ Friedl has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last seven road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• TJ Friedl has recorded at least one total base in each of the Reds’ last seven road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Spencer Steer has scored at least one run in nine of his last 11 road appearances against the Cubs.
• Spencer Steer has hit a home run in each of the Reds’ last two games at Wrigley Field against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Jonathan India has recorded an RBI in each of the Reds’ last three-day games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Jonathan India has recorded a Double in three of his last four road appearances against the Cubs.
• TJ Friedl has recorded at least one Single in each of the Reds’ last six road games.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction 

Chicago comes into this series after scoring 16 runs in their last two games, but they did lose two of three against the Phillies. The Cubs are 42-36 at home this season, while the Reds are just 37-41 on the road. Cincinnati has only scored three runs in their last three games and they will face Jameson Taillon, who has been very good in his last few starts. The Reds are starting Nick Martinez, who has also been very solid recently, so runs should be at a premium. This total is too low to take the under in my opinion, so I will side with the Cubs, as they have played well at home. 

David Racey's Pick: Cubs ML