| MATCHUP | Cincinnati Reds | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 20-14 | 22-12 |
| Spread | +1.5 -102 | -1.5 -118 |
| Moneyline | +179 | -219 |
| Total | Over 11.5 (-102) | Under 11.5 (-118) |
| Where | Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois | |
| When | Monday, May 4, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:40 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
Chicago Cubs Preview
The Chicago Cubs have a 22-12 record this season and are sitting in the first place of the NL Central. They have a 14-5 home record and are coming off an 8-4 home win against the Diamondbacks. Their previous three games were a 2-0 win and a 6-5 win at home against the Diamondbacks, and a 5-4 win on the road against the Padres.
The Cubs have a .261 batting average this season, .353 OBP and .430 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.89 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Nico Hoerner is the team’s best hitter with a .301 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 26. Ian Happ adds a team‑high 8 home runs.
Edward Cabrera (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 3-0 record, 3.06 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
Cincinnati Reds Preview
The Cincinnati Reds have a 20-14 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the NL Central. They have a 10-6 away record and are coming off a 0-1 loss on the road against the Pirates. Their previous three games were a 7-17 loss and a 1-9 loss on the road against the Pirates, and a 6-4 win at home against the Rockies.
The Reds have a .217 batting average this season, .304 OBP and .383 Slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s best hitter with a .271 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 25. Sal Stewart adds a team‑high 9 home runs.
Chase Petty (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds and last season he had a 0-3 record, 19.50 ERA and 3.67 WHIP.
Cincinnati Reds @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: May 4, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Edward Cabrera Record this season: 3-0 ERA: 3.06
- Home Record: 2-0
- Last 5 against Reds: 0-1
Why the Chicago Cubs will win
- The Cubs have won each of their last 11 home games.
- The Reds have lost each of their last five games against NL Central opponents.
- The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last seven games following a home win.
- The Reds have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- The Cubs have led after 3 innings in each of their last six games.
- The Reds have lost the first inning in four of their last five games.
- The Cubs have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven home games.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Chase Petty Record this season: – ERA: –
- Road Record: –
- Last 5 against Cubs: –
Why the Cincinnati Reds will win
- The Cubs have lost each of their last six Monday games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
- The Reds have won three of their last four games as underdogs against the Cubs.
- The Reds have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against NL Central opponents.
- The Reds have led after 3 innings in three of their last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Reds have won the first inning in three of their last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Monday games.
Total Runs Facts
- Eight of the Reds’ last nine games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Eight of the last nine games between the Reds and Cubs at Wrigley Field have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Reds’ last 12 games at Wrigley Field.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the last nine games between the Reds and Cubs.
Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts
- Dansby Swanson has hit a home run in three of the Cubs’ last four games as favorites against the Reds.
- Edward Cabrera has recorded six or more strikeouts in nine of his last 12 appearances in night games.
- Ian Happ has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 Monday appearances at Wrigley Field.
- Edward Cabrera has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts
- Spencer Steer has hit at least one home run in two of the Reds’ last three games against the Cubs.
- TJ Friedl has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 13 games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- Elly De La Cruz ranks T8th in the league in Home Runs (10) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Cubs rank 1st in the league for on-base percentage this season (.353).
- The Cubs rank T1st in the league for walks this season (155).
- The Reds rank 30th in the league for hits this season (244).
- The Reds rank 30th in the league for batting average this season (.217).
Reds vs Cubs Prediction
The Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 meetings against the Cubs but are 2-3 in their last 5 visits in Chicago. Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 meetings.
In this Reds vs Cubs Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -210 home favorites. The Cubs have been red-hot with five consecutive wins and have a huge pitching advantage with Cabrera on the mound. They also have the second-best offense in baseball and a better bullpen and are facing a Reds team that got swept by the Pirates by 0-3 wins, having allowed 29 earned runs in that span. Take the Cubs on the runline in this one for a comfortable home victory.