Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction 7/5/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Cardinals vs Cubs prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, July 5th at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals are 47-39 this season after they won the first two games in this series by scores of 17-1 and 3-0. In game two, St. Louis scored once in the first inning, once in the third inning, and once in the eighth inning in the shutout win. The Cardinals recorded eight hits in the game and they were led by Wetherholt, who went 3-4 with one home run and one RBI. Leahy allowed three hits and zero earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while O’Brien picked up the save. Prior to this series, St. Louis won two out of three against the Braves, but lost two out of three against the Marlins before that. 

This season, St. Louis has a 4.14 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP and a .252 opponent batting average, while they have scored 399 runs with a .248 batting average and a .325 on base percentage. Jordan Walker has led the Cardinals with 19 home runs and 63 RBIs, while Alec Burleson has added 14 home runs and 63 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for St. Louis is Matthew Liberatore, who is 4-5 with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP over 82.2 innings pitched this season. 

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 49-40 this year after they lost game two by a score of 0-3 on Saturday night. Chicago fell behind in the first inning and never found any offense in the loss. The Cubs recorded five hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Conforto, who went 2-3 with one walk. Imanaga allowed four hits and two earned runs over 4.2 innings for the loss, while Thornton allowed one earned run in relief. Prior to this series, Chicago swept the Padres in three games and won two out of three against the Brewers. 

This season, Chicago has a 4.36 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and a .244 opponent batting average, while they have scored 449 runs with a .244 batting average and a .338 on base percentage. Dansby Swanson has led the Cubs with 16 home runs and 57 RBIs, while Ian Happ has added 17 home runs and 41 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Javier Assad, who is 6-1 with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 51.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won each of their last five day games against the Cardinals at Wrigley Field following a home loss.
• The Cardinals have lost four of their last five day games at Wrigley Field following a road win.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in five of their last six games as favorites against the Cardinals following a loss.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 12 games at Wrigley Field against teams that held a winning record.

Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win

• The Cardinals have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs against NL Central opponents following a road win.
• The Cubs have lost six of their last seven games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in 14 of their last 15 games at Wrigley Field following a loss.
• The Cardinals have covered the run line in eight of their last nine road games against National League opponents.
• The Cardinals have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cardinals have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games against the Cubs.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Cubs’ last seven day games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Eleven of the Cardinals’ last 14 games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of Javier Assad’s last four appearances as a starter.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Cardinals’ last four day games against NL Central opponents.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Seiya Suzuki has hit a home run in four of the Cubs’ last six home games against the Cardinals.
• Javier Assad has recorded four or more strikeouts in six of his last eight appearances with the Cubs as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last 16 games at Wrigley Field.
• Javier Assad has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against NL opponents.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks T5th in the league in Steals (21) this season.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Matthew Liberatore has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances with the Cardinals as road underdogs against NL opponents.
• Jordan Walker has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances after playing the previous day.
• Bryan Torres has hit a home run in each of the Cardinals’ last two day games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 4th in the league for runs scored this season (449).
• The Cubs rank T4th in the league for RBIs this season (420).
• The Cardinals rank 4th in the league for strikeouts against this season (666).
• The Cardinals are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.

Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction

St. Louis comes into this matchup on a three game winning streak and they have allowed a total of one run in this series. The Cardinals are 24-18 on the road this year, while the Cubs are 26-19 at home. Chicago has won three of their last five games, but they have scored three runs or fewer in three of those five. The Cubs are starting Assad, who has allowed seven earned runs in his last 7.2 innings, while Liberatore has allowed 4+ earned runs in three of his last four outings. Take the over in this one.

David Racey's Pick: Over 8