| MATCHUP | Baltimore Orioles | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 41-48 | 40-47 |
| Spread | +1.5 -193 | -1.5 158 |
| Moneyline | +104 | -125 |
| Total | Over 9 (-119) | Under 9 (-101) |
| Where | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio | |
| When | Saturday, July 4, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:10 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
The Baltimore Orioles are 41-48 on the year and play the Cubs and Royals next. The Baltimore Orioles are batting .238 on the season and have a .318 OBP and a .396 slugging percentage. The Baltimore Orioles’ pitching staff has a 4.34 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. Taylor Ward leads the Baltimore Orioles with 83 hits and 23 RBI, while Gunnar Henderson and Pete Alonso have combined for 164 hits and 98 RBI.
Brandon Young gets the ball for the Baltimore Orioles, and he is 6-2 with a 3.11 ERA and 57 strikeouts this season. This will be Young’s second career game against the Cincinnati Reds.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
The Cincinnati Reds are 40-47 on the year and play the Cubs and Phillies next. The Cincinnati Reds are batting. 227 on the season, have a .309 OBP, and have a .388 slugging percentage. The Cincinnati Reds’ pitching staff has a 4.56 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Sal Stewart leads the Cincinnati Reds with 84 hits and 60 RBI, while Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer have combined for 142 hits and 74 RBI.
Hunter Greene gets the ball for the Cincinnati Reds, and he was 7-4 with a 2.76 ERA and 132 strikeouts last season. Greene is 0-1 with a 5.19 ERA and 9 strikeouts in his career against the Baltimore Orioles.
Why the Cincinnati Reds will win
- The Reds have won each of their last six games as favorites against AL East opponents.
- The Orioles have lost six of their last seven games after playing the previous day.
- The favorites have covered the run line in six of the Reds’ last seven games.
- The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 12 night games against NL Central opponents.
- The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last three games as favorites against AL East opponents.
Why the Baltimore Orioles will win
- The Reds have lost each of their last four games as home favorites against AL East opponents following a loss.
- The Orioles have won each of their last three games as road underdogs against the Reds.
- The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games against American League opponents.
- The Orioles have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
- The Orioles have led after 5 innings in four of their last five road games against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Orioles have won the first inning in three of their last four games at Great American Ball Park against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Orioles have led after 3 innings in four of their last five road games against National League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Reds’ last four night games against American League opponents has gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Six of the Orioles’ last seven games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Orioles’ last five games.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Reds’ last five games.
Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts
- Elly De La Cruz has recorded two or more hits in each of his last four appearances with the Reds as home favorites against AL opponents.
- Hunter Greene has recorded seven or more strikeouts in 12 of his last 13 appearances with the Reds as home favorites.
- Spencer Steer has hit at least one home run in four of the Reds’ last eight games as favorites against AL opponents.
Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts
- Samuel Basallo has hit at least one home run in each of the Orioles’ last two road games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Brandon Young has recorded five or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances.
- Samuel Basallo has recorded at least one hit in each of the Orioles’ last eight games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
- Brandon Young has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Reds rank 29th in the league for walks allowed this season (391).
- The Reds rank 28th in the league for triples this season (6).
- The Orioles rank 24th in the league for hits allowed this season (769).
- The Orioles rank 23rd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.253).
Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
Young has been solid this season, and he’s coming off a June in which he allowed 25 hits and 9 runs in 29.1 innings. Since May, the Orioles are 8-2 with Young on the bump. Greene is a talented arm when he’s right, but he’s making his season debut after having elbow surgery to remove bone chips. I prefer sample sizes in my pitches, and we don’t yet know what to expect from Greene. I’m rolling with the more trustworthy arm. Give me the Orioles on the road.