| MATCHUP | Atlanta Braves | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 62-43 | 44-62 |
| Spread | -1.5 149 | +1.5 -181 |
| Moneyline | -117 | -103 |
| Total | Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115) |
| Where | Citi Field, Queens, New York | |
| When | Monday, July 27, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:10 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
The Atlanta Braves are 62-43 on the year and play the Nationals and Marlins next. The Atlanta Braves are batting .249 on the season and have a .316 OBP and a .417 slugging percentage. The Atlanta Braves’ pitching staff has a 3.64 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. Michael Harris II leads the Atlanta Braves with 113 hits and 61 RBI, while Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies have combined for 216 hits and 120 RBI.
Martin Perez gets the ball for the Atlanta Braves, and he is 6-6 with a 3.38 ERA and 65 strikeouts this season. Perez is 5-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 32 strikeouts in his career against the New York Mets.
New York Mets Betting Preview
The New York Mets are 44-62 on the year and play the Marlins and Guardians next. The New York Mets are batting .233 on the season, have a .304 OBP, and have a .381 slugging percentage. The New York Mets’ pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Bo Bichette leads the New York Mets with 107 hits and 52 RBI, while Carson Benge and Juan Soto have combined for 182 hits and 92 RBI.
Zac Thornton gets the ball for the New York Mets, and he is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA and 17 strikeouts this season. This will be Thornton’s first career game against the Atlanta Braves.
Why the New York Mets will win
- The Braves have lost each of their last four games as favorites after going to extra innings.
- The Mets have won three of their last four games as home underdogs against NL East opponents following a home win.
- The Braves have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites.
- The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last six games as home underdogs after playing the previous day.
- The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three road night games.
Why the Atlanta Braves will win
- The Braves have won nine of their last 10 night games against NL East opponents following a road win.
- The Mets have lost five of their last six home games.
- The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last five games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as underdogs against the Braves following a home win.
- The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games at Citi Field against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Braves have led after 3 innings in each of their last three night games against the Mets.
Total Runs Facts
- Eight of the Braves’ last nine night games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Four of the last five games between the Braves and Mets have gone OVER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Braves’ last five games as favorites against NL East opponents.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Mets’ last four night games against NL East opponents.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Luis Robert has hit a home run in two of the Mets’ last three night games.
- Bo Bichette has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against the Braves.
Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts
- Drake Baldwin has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances with the Braves as road favorites against NL East opponents.
- Martin Perez has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last six road appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- Matt Olson has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves’ last eight games against NL East opponents.
- Michael Harris ranks 8th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.298) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Mets rank 28th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.304).
- The Mets rank 28th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.304).
- The Braves rank T27th in the league for triples this season (8).
- The Braves rank T27th in the league for triples this season (8).
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction
The Braves have turned things around over the last week, and Perez has been strong this season with a 3.38 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. I’m not in the business of backing the Mets, the most underwhelming team in the league. Thornton also has just 23.1 innings for his MLB career, and I simply need a larger sample size before I show him any attention. You can make a strong argument that the Braves should be steeper favorites. This line has to be one of the bigger value bets on Monday’s MLB card. Give me the Braves.