Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 5/16/25 MLB Picks

The Atlanta Braves and the Boston Red Sox meet Friday in MLB action from Fenway Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Atlanta Braves will start Chris Sale here, and Sale is 1-3 with a 3.97 ERA and 64 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against Boston, Sale is 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA and 39 strikeouts. Garret Crochet will get the start for Boston here, and Crochet is 4-2 with a 1.93 ERA and 65 strikeouts this season. This will be Crochet’s second career start against the Braves.

Atlanta Braves Recap

The Atlanta Braves come into this game looking to build on their 5-2 win over the Washington Nationals on Thursday to improve to 22-22 on the year. After this series, the Braves will head on the road for a rematch series against the Nationals.

Braves Get Back To .500

Austin Riley leads the Braves with 52 hits, including 8 home runs, 26 RBIs, and 8 doubles, but also has the dubious distinction of leading Atlanta with 55 strikeouts so far this season. Ozzie Albies has 38 hits with 5 home runs and 16 RBIs in addition to 5 stolen bases, and Matt Olson has 34 hits with 6 doubles, 7 home runs, and 21 RBIs of his own. Marcell Ozuna also has 37 hits with 6 home runs and 18 RBIs. Michael Harris II also has 39 hits with 8 doubles, 3 home runs, and 25 RBIs, and 7 stolen bases as well and Nick Allen has 5 stolen bases as well this season.

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The Red Sox have lost each of their last eight games against NL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Braves have won each of their last three games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Friday night home games against National League opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Red Sox’s last six games.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Sean Murphy has hit at least one home run in four of his last five appearances with the Braves as road underdogs.
• Sean Murphy has recorded a Double in three of his last four road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Michael Harris has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Braves’ last eight road games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Chris Sale has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances at Fenway Park against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Austin Riley has recorded at least one Single in each of the Braves’ last 10 night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Chris Sale has recorded nine or more strikeouts in six of his seven previous appearances against former teams.
• Austin Riley has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves’ last 13 night games.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. has scored at least one run in each of his last nine Friday appearances against teams that held a losing record.
• Marcell Ozuna ranks 6th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.413) this season.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to bounce back after a 6-5 loss at the hands of the Detroit Tigers last time out to slip to 22-23 on the year. After this series, the Red Sox will welcome the New York Mets to town for another interleague home series.

Red Sox Drop Three In A Row

Alex Bregman leads the Red Sox with 55 hits, including a team-high 15 doubles, along with 11 home runs and 33 RBIs, while Rafael Devers has added 47 hits with 12 doubles, 7 home runs, and 32 RBIs this season. Trevor Story added 39 hits with 6 home runs, 19 RBIs, and 8 stolen bases, while Jarren Duran has 49 hits with 10 doubles, 4 triples, 2 home runs, 23 RBIs, and a team-high 11 stolen bases. Kristian Campbell added 35 hits with 8 doubles, 5 homers, and 15 RBIs, while Wilyer Abreu has 11 home runs with 27 RBIs and 4 stolen bases, and Ceddanne Rafaela has 2 homers, 2 triples, 18 RBIs, and 7 stolen bases this season.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Braves have lost each of their last five games against AL East opponents following a win.
• The Red Sox have won each of their last seven games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last six games as favorites against the Braves following a loss.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs against the Red Sox following a win.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Rafael Devers has recorded a Double in three of the Red Sox’s last four games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one RBI in seven of his last eight home appearances against NL East opponents.
• Trevor Story has scored at least one run in each of his last eight appearances with his team as a home favorite against NL East opponents.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 16 appearances with his team as a home favorite against NL East opponents.
• Wilyer Abreu has hit at least one home run in three of the Red Sox’s last four games as favorites.
• Wilyer Abreu has recorded at least one Single in nine of his last 10 home appearances against NL opponents.
• Alex Bregman ranks T4th in the league in Hits (55) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Braves’ last six road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.

Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction

I’m on the Red Sox here. Chris Sale has plenty of experience pitching at Fenway from his time in Boston from 2017-2023, but even with decent numbers there, I still have my concerns in this matchup because I worry the Braves’ offense isn’t going to be able to back him up here with Crochet on the other side. The Braves have had issues against lefties, and I think Boston gets it done at home here. Give me the Red Sox in this one.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Boston Red Sox -125