Utah State (3-1) vs Vanderbilt (4-0)
September 27, 2025 at 12:45 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Vanderbilt -22.5 — Over/Under: +59.5
In this article we will formulate a Utah State vs Vanderbilt prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, September 27th at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 5 matchup.
Utah State Aggies Betting Preview
The Utah State Aggies are 3-1 (1-0) this year after they defeated McNeese by a score of 48-7 last week. Utah State led 13-0 after the first quarter and 34-7 at the half, before pitching a shutout in the second half for the easy win. The Aggies out gained McNeese by a total of 627-239, went 6-12 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 2-0 in the game. Bryson Barnes went 19-27 for 293 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, while also rushing for 128 yards and two scores. Braden Pegan led Utah State with three catches for 95 yards in the win. The Aggies defense recorded four sacks and six tackles for loss in the game.
Utah State also has wins over UTEP and Air Force, but did lose to Texas A&M by a score of 44-22. The Aggies are averaging 36.8 points per game with 246.3 passing yards and 181.3 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 24.3 points against per game this season. Bryson Barnes has completed 65.4% of his passes for 982 yards, eight touchdowns, and one interception, while Braden Pegan has caught 17 passes for 303 yards and three scores. Miles Davis is the leading rusher for Utah State with 310 yards and two scores on 44 carries this year.
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview
The Vanderbilt Commodores are 4-0 (1-0) this season after they defeated Georgia State by a score of 70-21 in their last game. Vanderbilt led 21-3 after the first quarter and 42-9 at the half, before adding 28 points in the second half for the blowout victory. The Commodores out gained Georgia State by a total of 635-290, went 6-10 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a margin of 1-0 in the game. Diego Pavia went 18-24 for 245 yards and one touchdown, while also rushing for 86 yards and one score. Eli Stowers led the Vandy receivers with five catches for 73 yards in the game. The Vanderbilt defense recorded three sacks and eight tackles for loss in the victory.
Vanderbilt also has wins over Charleston Southern, Virginia Tech, and South Carolina this year. The Commodores are averaging 47.5 points per game with 258.5 passing yards and 223.8 rushing yards per game, while they are allowing 12.8 points against per game this season. Diego Pavia has completed 73.9% of his passes for 890 yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions, while also being the leading rusher with 215 yards and one touchdown. Eli Stowers has led Vanderbilt with 16 receptions for 233 yards and one score this season.
Why Utah State will beat Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt has failed to cover the spread in 12 of its last 14 September games at FirstBank Stadium.
Utah State has covered the spread in six of its last seven games.
Total Points Facts
Each of Vanderbilt’s last nine home games in September have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of Utah State’s last four games as a road underdog have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
Vanderbilt ranks T4th among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (24.0).
Vanderbilt ranks 5th among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (3.8).
Utah State ranks 5th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (12.8).
Utah State ranks 7th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+9.5).
Utah State vs Vanderbilt Prediction
Vanderbilt comes into this matchup looking to stay undefeated, as they have been very impressive in the first four weeks. The Commodores just scored 70 against Georgia State and they have hit 44 in three of their first four games. Utah State has scored 48 and 59 points in their last two games and they also managed 22 against Texas A&M. Vanderbilt is obviously the better team, but this is a huge look ahead spot with Alabama next week. I think Utah State can do enough to keep this game somewhat close, so give me the Aggies with the points here.
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