Florida (7-5) vs Tulane (9-3)
Game Info: Friday, December 20, 2024 at 3:30 pm (Raymond James Stadium)
The Line: Betting Odds: Florida -14 / Tulane +14 — Over/Under: 49.5
The Tulane Green Wave and the Florida Gators meet Friday in Gasparilla Bowl college football action from Raymond James Stadium. Here’s a Tulane vs Florida prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Tulane vs Florida pick. We will examine:
The Tulane Green Wave’s recent form and player performance
The Florida Gators’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Tulane Green Wave
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Florida Gators
Recent betting trends in games played between Tulane and Florida
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Tulane vs Florida game
Tulane Green Wave Betting Preview
The Wave lost two of their first three games versus Kansas State and Oklahoma, then hit a winning streak. After victories versus Louisiana, USF, UAB, Rice, North Texas, Charlotte, Temple, and Navy in succession, Tulane fell to Memphis and Army to finish off the regular season.
Matched up against the Black Knights in the AAC Championship back on December 6, the Wave fell behind 21-7 by the Break. Tulane didn’t end up getting any closer in a 35-14 defeat. Darian Mensah threw for 209 yards, two scores, and an interception, while Mario Williams was the top receiver with 109 yards and a TD off six grabs.
Florida Gators Betting Preview
Over on the Gators’ side, they limped to a 4-5 record through nine games. The losses in that time were versus Miami, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Georgia, and Texas. Florida finished strong though, taking out LSU, Ole Miss, and Florida State in the final trio.
In their November 30 matchup with the Seminoles, the Gators took a 17-3 edge into the final quarter and rolled to a 31-11 finish. Quarterback DJ Lagway posted 133 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. Montrell Johnson rushed 10 times for 99 yards and a touchdown, and Chimere Dike caught three balls for 63 yards.
Why the Florida Gators will win
- Florida has won five of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Tulane has lost each of its last three games in December.
- Florida has covered the spread in each of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Tulane has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games in December.
Why the Tulane Green Wave will win
- Florida has lost each of its last eight games played at neutral venues.
- Tulane has won eight of its last 10 games.
- Florida has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games against opponents from the American Athletic Conference.
- Tulane has covered the spread in three of its last four games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Tulane’s last four games at neutral venues has gone OVER the total points line.
- Five of Florida’s last six games as a favorite at neutral venues have gone UNDER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Florida ranks 119th among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (271).
- Florida ranks T118th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (3.7).
- Tulane ranks 6th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (167.9).
- Tulane ranks 6th among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (33:00).
Tulane vs Florida Prediction
I’m going to take a stab at Tulane here. You could probably call it either way though; we should have a fun matchup in store. The Green Wave aren’t built to fight off an attack like Army’s—few teams are—so the AAC Championship numbers are at least somewhat understandable. Tulane gave up 335 rush yards and 20 first downs in that one, holding the ball for just 25:40 of game time themselves. The Wave have given up exactly 34 points in three of their four losses this year, and 35 in the other. Defense is going to be key in this bowl matchup, but the normally-capable offense also needs a shot in the arm after just 38 combined points in the last two games.
As for Florida, they didn’t have much issue with a struggling Seminoles team in their final regular-season outing, scooping up five lost fumbles on defense. The Gators have taken down two ranked teams in their last trio (LSU and Ole Miss), and they’ve given up 17 points or fewer in all three of those outings. This one could break a lot of different ways depending on game plans. I’m leaning slightly toward Tulane cover-wise, but it’ll be a great game regardless.