Indiana (9-0) vs Michigan (5-4)
Game Info: Saturday, November 9, 2024 at 2:33 pm (Memorial Stadium)
The Line: Betting Odds: Indiana -13.5 / Michigan +13.5 — Over/Under: 45.5
The Michigan Wolverines and the Indiana Hoosiers meet Saturday in college football action from the Rock. Here’s a Michigan vs Indiana prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Michigan vs Indiana pick. We will examine:
The Michigan Wolverines’ recent form and player performance
The Indiana Hoosiers’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Michigan Wolverines
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Indiana Hoosiers
Recent betting trends in games played between Michigan and Indiana
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Michigan vs Indiana game
Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview
Michigan managed to go 4-1 over their first five games, taking out Fresno State, Arkansas State, USC, and Minnesota alongside a loss to Texas. The Wolverines would then lose to Washington and Illinois before another win over Michigan State.
In the Oregon matchup last weekend, the Wolverines gave up 21 points in the second quarter along the way to a 38-17 defeat. Davis Warren threw for 165 yards and a couple of scores. Colston Loveland led the receivers on seven grabs for 112 yards.
Indiana Hoosiers Betting Preview
Over on the Hoosiers’ side, they got off to a nice start this season. Indiana would rattle off wins in each of their first eight games, taking out FIU, Western Illinois, UCLA, Charlotte, Maryland, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Washington in that span.
Matched up against Michigan State, the Hoosiers were down 10-0 early but quickly recovered in an eventual 47-10 blowout win. Kurtis Rourke threw for 263 yards and four scores. Ke’Shawn Williams caught six balls for 86 yards to top the receivers.
Why the Indiana Hoosiers will win
- Indiana has won each of its last nine games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Michigan has lost three of its last four games against conference opponents.
- Indiana has covered the spread in each of its last eight games as a favorite.
- Michigan has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games against conference opponents.
Why the Michigan Wolverines will win
- Michigan has won four of its last five November games against top-10 AP-ranked teams.
- Indiana has lost five of its last six November games at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington).
- Michigan has covered the spread in five of its last six road games in November.
- Indiana has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six November games at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington).
Total Points Facts
- Each of Michigan’s last six November games as an underdog has gone OVER the total points line.
- Seven of Indiana’s last eight games as a favorite have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Indiana ranks 1st among FBS teams for rushing yards allowed per game this season (72.6).
- Indiana ranks 1st among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (+10.6).
- Michigan ranks T8th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (76.9).
- Michigan ranks 119th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (143).
Michigan vs Indiana Prediction
I’m leaning toward Indiana. The Hoosiers are coming off a strong road victory over Michigan State, holding the Spartans to just 193 total yards (negative-36 rushing) and 3.0 yards per play with two takeaways. Indiana wasn’t super flashy on offense with a rough 2-of-10 success rate for third downs, but they got the job done handily.
As for Michigan, they’re coming off a big loss to a tough Oregon squad. The Wolverines mustered just 11 first downs and 4-of-12 on third-down tries. The defense couldn’t get off the field with 10-of-15 on third downs and 6.6 yards per play allowed. This weekend’s matchup will be another tough one for Michigan, and I don’t think they’ll get close enough to cover.