Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction 8/16/2026 Today’s WNBA Picks

The Portland Fire and the Phoenix Mercury meet Sunday in WNBA action from the Mortgage Matchup Center. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Portland Fire vs. Phoenix Mercury prediction.

Matchup History

The Phoenix Mercury won the most recent meeting between these two teams back on June 5th, 2026, by a final score of 78-72 back on June 5th, 2026.

Portland Fire Recap

The Portland Fire will be out to add on to their 84-82 win over the Seattle Storm last time out to sit at 14-20 this season. After this game, the Fire will head on the road for a series against the Toronto Tempo.

Fire Win 3 Of Last 4

Carla Leite has 15.2 PPG with 5.9 APG while Bridget Carleton’s added 13.7 PPG with 3.9 RPG and 2.2 APG. Megan DiLeo has 12.8 PPG with 3.9 RPG and Sarah Ashlee Barker has 10.7 PPG with 4.5 RPG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for the Fire so far this season. Emily Engstler also has 9.1 PPG with a team-high 5.4 RPG as well for Portland this season. 

Phoenix Mercury Recap

The Phoenix Mercury come into this game looking to add on to their 94-87 win over the Los Angeles Sparks last time out to sit at 13-22 this season. After this game, the Mercury will take on the Atlanta Dream at home.

Mercury Snap Three-Game Slide

Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury in scoring with 20.9 PPG while Alyssa Thomas has 14.9 PPG with 7.1 RPG and a team-high 8.3 APG to lead the Mercury in assists this season. Jovana Nogic has 10.4 PPG and DeWanna Bonner has 10.2 PPG with 5.8 RPG to cap off the scoring in double figures for Phoenix up to this point in the year. Natasha Mack also has 8.8 PPG with 7.4 RPG as well this season to lead the Mercury in rebounding.

Portland Fire @ Phoenix Mercury Betting Trends: August 16, 2026

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The Mercury have won each of their last seven home games following a road win.
• The Fire have lost each of their last six games after winning as underdogs.
• The Mercury have covered the spread in seven of their last eight day games against Western Conference opponents that held a losing record.
• The Fire have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four road games after winning as underdogs.

Why the Portland Fire will win

• The Fire have won four of their last five games against Western Conference opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mercury have lost three of their last four games.
• The Fire have covered the spread in each of their last four games.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Mercury’s last four games as home favorites following a road win have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Fire’s last four day games have gone OVER the total points line.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas has recorded 5+ rebounds and 5+ assists in 11 consecutive appearances – longest active streak of any player in the league.
• DeWanna Bonner ranks last amongst 51 qualified players for three-point field-goal percentage (25.6%) this season.

Portland Fire Player Facts

• Carla Leite has made 2+ free throws in 18 consecutive appearances – longest active streak of any player in the league.
• Bridget Carleton is one of only two players in the league to have made 6+ threes in consecutive games this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for opponent three-point percentage this season (36.5%).
• The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for field goals made per game this season (28.9).
• The Portland Fire rank 14th for turnovers per game this season (15.3).
• The Portland Fire rank 14th for turnover percentage this season (16.8%).

Portland Fire vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction

I’m on the Fire here. I just think the Mercury are overpriced here as they have been for much of the season. The Fire have been solid in the underdog role and I look for that to continue here. Give me the Fire.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Portland +4.5