Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction 7/11/2026 Today’s WNBA Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Jul 9, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Indiana Fever center Aliyah Boston (7) passes the ball against Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas (25) at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Phoenix Mercury
Las Vegas Aces
Team Records
8-15
16-6
Spread
+9.5 -105
-9.5 -115
Moneyline
+360
-470
Total
Over 169.5 (-110)
Under 169.5 (-110)
Where
Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
When
Saturday, July 11, 2026
Time
06:00 PM EDT
TV
Peacock
The Phoenix Mercury and the Las Vegas Aces meet Saturday in WNBA action from the T-Mobile Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces prediction.
Matchup History
The Las Vegas Aces won the most recent meeting between these two teams by a final score of 86-76 back on June 17th, 2026, making it 8 wins in the last 9 head-to-head meetings for the Aces in this head-to-head matchup.
Phoenix Mercury Recap
The Phoenix Mercury come into this game looking to shake off a 92-89 loss at the hands of Indiana last time out to sit at 8-15 this season. After this game, the Mercury will head on the road for a game against the Minnesota Lynx.
Mercury Lose Back-To-Back Games
Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury in scoring with 20.8 PPG while Alyssa Thomas has 14.6 PPG with 6.9 RPG and a team-high 8.2 APG to lead the Mercury in assists this season. Jovana Nogic has 10.4 PPG to cap off the scoring in double figures for Phoenix up to this point in the year. Monique Akoa Makani has 9.9 PPG with 2.1 RPG and 2.7 APG and Natasha Mack also has 9.2 PPG with 8.3 RPG as well this season to lead the Mercury in rebounding.
Las Vegas Aces Recap
The Las Vegas Aces come into this game looking to add on to their 88-80 win over Portland last time out to sit at 16-7 this season. After this game, the Aces will take on the Fever in a matchup at home.
Aces Alternate Wins & Losses In 5 Straight
A’Ja Wilson leads the Aces in scoring with 26 PPG along with 9.4 RPG and 2.9 APG while NaLyssa Smith’s added 12 PPG with 6.3 RPG. Chelsea Gray’s added 12.3 PPG with 7.3 APG to lead the Aces in assists and Jackie Young also has 16.5 PPG with 4.5 RPG and 6.8 APG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for the Aces up to this point in the season.
Phoenix Mercury @ Las Vegas Aces Betting Trends: July 11, 2026
Why the Las Vegas Aces will win
The Aces have won 18 of their last 19 games against teams that held a losing record.
The Mercury have lost each of their last seven games against Aces teams that held a winning record.
The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games against Aces teams that held a winning record.
The Aces have covered the spread in five of their last six games against Mercury teams that held a losing record.
Why the Phoenix Mercury will win
The Aces have lost three of their last four games as favorites on the first leg of a back-to-back.
The road team has won each of the last four games between the Aces and Mercury.
The Mercury have covered the spread in seven of their last eight day games following a home loss.
The Aces have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games on the first leg of a back-to-back.
Total Points Facts
Each of the Mercury’s last four road games following a home loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
Thirteen of the Aces’ last 16 day games against Western Conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Las Vegas Aces Player Facts
A’ja Wilson ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (26.0) this season.
Chelsea Gray ranks 1st amongst qualified players for FT% (95.0%) this season.
Phoenix Mercury Player Facts
Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (8.2) this season.
Kahleah Copper has scored 20+ points in six consecutive appearances – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.
Matchup/League Facts
The Las Vegas Aces rank 1st for assists per game this season (22.3).
The Las Vegas Aces rank 1st for opponent blocks per game this season (2.5).
The Phoenix Mercury rank 1st for opponent free throw attempts per game this season (17.7).
The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for points in the paint per game (34.4) this season.
Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces Prediction
I’m backing the Aces here. I get the case to be made for either side in this game and I was tempted by Phoenix with the points, but A’Ja Wilson is back in form for the Aces and the Mercury are missing their biggest rebounding threat here in Natasha Mack to combat Wilson. There’s only so much Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper can do to keep themselves competitive here and I just don’t see the Aces letting up in this game. Give me Las Vegas in this one.
