Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction 5/9/2026 Today’s WNBA Picks

The Phoenix Mercury and the Las Vegas Aces meet Saturday in WNBA action from the T-Mobile Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces prediction.

Matchup History

The Las Vegas Aces have won 8 straight in this head-to-head matchup, including a 97-86 win over the Mercury in game four of the WNBA Finals last season to complete the sweep.

Phoenix Mercury Team Preview

The Phoenix Mercury enter the 2026 season looking to build on a highly successful transition year after defying expectations by finishing tied for fourth at 27-17, marching all the way to the WNBA Finals before falling to Las Vegas. The backbone of their success was Alyssa Thomas, who put up a monster season averaging 15.4 points, a league-leading 9.2 assists, and 8.8 rebounds in her first year with Phoenix. However, the biggest question mark heading into 2026 is how they will replace star forward Satou Sabally, who averaged over 16 points a game last year before departing for New York in free agency. Without adding another superstar of Sabally’s caliber in the offseason, the pressure shifts heavily to Thomas, wing Kahleah Copper, and veteran DeWanna Bonner to keep the offense efficient. Only time will tell if Thomas can replicate her incredible all-around production in Year 2 to keep Phoenix in the championship conversation, or if a deeper playoff run will prove too tough a task after a quiet offseason.

Las Vegas Aces Team Preview

The Las Vegas Aces enter the 2026 season with history on their minds after cementing their status as one of the greatest dynasties ever with a WNBA Finals sweep of the Mercury last year following a 30-14 regular season where they finished second and knocked off Seattle and Indiana before taking down Phoenix. The Aces pretty much run it back with their core, led by A’Ja Wilson, who is firmly in her prime as the only player in league history with four MVP trophies, as well as Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, and Jewell Loyd who looks to be part of the plan long term. The addition of players like Dana Evans and Chennedy Carter should bolster their bench depth, with Carter having a realistic shot at a Sixth Woman of the Year campaign if she can thrive as a primary offensive spark off the bench. Only time will tell if the Aces can handle the immense weight of historical expectations to secure another championship ring, but they remain the undisputed team to beat in 2026.

Phoenix Mercury @ Las Vegas Aces Betting Trends: May 9, 2026

Why the Las Vegas Aces will win

• The Aces have won each of their last nine home games against Western Conference opponents.
• The Mercury have lost seven of their last eight day games.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight day games.
• The Aces have covered the spread in six of their last seven games against the Mercury.

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The Aces have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 Saturday day games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Aces’ last nine day games against Western Conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Mercury’s last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.

Las Vegas Aces Player Facts

• A’ja Wilson ranked 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (23.4) last season.
• Chelsea Gray recorded 2+ blocks in three consecutive appearances – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranked 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) last season.
• Natasha Mack ranked 1st amongst qualified players for blocks per 36 minutes (3.0) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Las Vegas Aces ranked 1st for opponent blocks per game last season (2.6).
• The Las Vegas Aces recorded the longest winning streak in the WNBA last season (5 games).
• The Phoenix Mercury have allowed fewer than 100 points points in each of their last 29 games – team’s longest streak since 2021.
• The Phoenix Mercury ranked 1st for bench points per game (25.5) last season.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces Prediction

I’m on the Aces here. I just think that the Mercury have a hard time competing here as the Aces have been the better team head-to-head for some time now and I think the Mercury have taken a step back from a talent perspective compared to what this team was just a year ago against the Aces in the finals, especially with no Sabally. It’s crazy to think the Aces got better, but the depth they added to the bench is a big deal and I think they start the year with another statement win. Give me the Aces.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Las Vegas -8.5