Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction 10/5/2025 Today’s WNBA Picks

The Phoenix Mercury and the Las Vegas Aces meet Sunday in WNBA Finals playoff action from the T-Mobile Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces prediction.

Game One Recap

The Las Vegas Aces drew first blood in the finals by picking up an 89-86 win over the Phoenix Mercury last time out to take the 1-0 series lead. A’ja Wilson led the Aces with 21 points on 7 of 16 shooting with a team-high 10 rebounds and 5 assists while Dana Evans added 21 points of her own on 8 of 13 shooting with 5 threes, 3 assists and 4 steals. Jewell Loyd added 18 points on 8 of 16 shooting while Jackie Young chipped in 10 points and 5 assists to cap off the double-digit scoring for the Aces in the win. Chelsea Gray also added 8 points, 7 rebounds and a team-high 10 assists in the victory. Kahleah Copper led Phoenix with 21 points on 7 of 12 shooting with 5 threes while Satou Sabally added 19 points on 6 of 12 shooting with 3 threes and 4 assists. Alyssa Thomas fell just short of a triple double with 15 points on 7 of 10 shooting with 10 rebounds and 9 assists, both team-highs. Monique Akoa Makani chipped in 11 points and DeWanna Bonner added 10 points and 8 rebounds to cap off the double-digit scoring for Phoenix in the loss.

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Satou Sabally leads the Mercury in scoring with 16.6 PPG along with 6.1 RPG, 2.5 APG and 1.3 SPG while Alyssa Thomas has 15.8 PPG with 8.9 RPG and 9.2 APG and Kahleah Copper has 16.3 PPG. DeWanna Bonner has 11.2 PPG in 20 games so far with Phoenix to cap off the double-digit scorers for Phoenix so far this season. Sami Whitcomb also has 9.1 PPG with 2.8 RPG and 2.6 APG while Lexi Held’s added 5.7 PPG and Monique Akoa Makani has 8 PPG. Kitija Laksa has 6 PPG as well on the year.

Las Vegas Aces Stats

A’Ja Wilson leads the Aces across the board with 21.5 PPG along with 9.1 RPG to go along with 3.3 APG, 2.3 BPG and 1.7 SPG. Jackie Young has 16.6 PPG with 4.1 RPG and 4.5 APG as well this season. Chelsea Gray has chipped in 11 PPG with 4.1 RPG and 4.5 APG and Jewell Loyd’s added 11.4 PPG with 3.7 RPG to round out the group of double-digit scorers for Las Vegas so far this season.

Phoenix Mercury @ Las Vegas Aces Betting Trends: October 5, 2025

Why the Las Vegas Aces will win

• The Aces have won each of their last eight home games against Western Conference opponents.
• The Mercury have lost 12 of their last 14 games against Aces teams that held a winning record.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six WNBA Finals games.
• The Aces have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 games against Western Conference opponents.

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The road team has won six of the last eight games between the Aces and Mercury.
• The Aces have lost three of their last four day games at Michelob Ultra Arena following a home win.
• The Aces have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five day games at Michelob Ultra Arena following a home win.
• The Mercury have covered the spread in four of their last five road games against the Aces following a road loss.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Aces’ last six day games against Western Conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Mercury’s last four games have gone OVER the total points line.

Las Vegas Aces Player Facts

• A’ja Wilson ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (23.4) this season.
• Jackie Young has made 3+ free throws in four consecutive appearances – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) this season.
• Kahleah Copper ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for three-pointers made per game (2.0) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Las Vegas Aces rank 1st for opponent blocks per game this season (2.6).
• The Las Vegas Aces rank 12th for opponent free throw percentage this season (81.5%).
• The Phoenix Mercury have recorded the longest road winning streak in the WNBA this season (2 games).
• The Phoenix Mercury rank 1st for bench points per game (25.5) this season.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces Prediction

I’m on the Aces here. I just think that until the Mercury can show me that they can take down the Aces, this is a Las Vegas team that’s just too hard to step in front of right now, especially with the amount of experience and success they have this late in the season. Give me Las Vegas at home here.