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Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction 10/3/2025 Today’s WNBA Picks

Sep 30, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson (22) passes the ball over the defense of Indiana Fever guard Odyssey Sims (1) during the first quarter of game five of the second round for the 2025 WNBA Playoffs at Michelob Ultra Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Sep 30, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson (22) passes the ball over the defense of Indiana Fever guard Odyssey Sims (1) during the first quarter of game five of the second round for the 2025 WNBA Playoffs at Michelob Ultra Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

MATCHUP Phoenix Mercury Las Vegas Aces
Team Records 27-17 30-14
Where Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
When Friday, October 3, 2025
Time 08:00 PM EDT
TV ESPN
The Phoenix Mercury and the Las Vegas Aces meet Friday in WNBA Finals playoff action from the T-Mobile Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces prediction.

Matchup History

The Las Vegas Aces picked up an 83-61 win over the Mercury back on August 21st, 2025, making it three straight wins for the Aces in this head-to-head matchup.

Phoenix Mercury Recap

The Phoenix Mercury come into this game looking to build on their 86-81 win over the Minnesota Lynx last time out to win the series in four games.

Mercury Looking For First Title Win Since 2014

Satou Sabally leads the Mercury in scoring with 16.6 PPG along with 6.1 RPG, 2.5 APG and 1.3 SPG while Alyssa Thomas has 15.8 PPG with 8.9 RPG and 9.2 APG and Kahleah Copper has 16.3 PPG. DeWanna Bonner has 11.2 PPG in 20 games so far with Phoenix to cap off the double-digit scorers for Phoenix so far this season. Sami Whitcomb also has 9.1 PPG with 2.8 RPG and 2.6 APG while Lexi Held’s added 5.7 PPG and Monique Akoa Makani has 8 PPG. Kitija Laksa has 6 PPG as well on the year.

Las Vegas Aces Recap

The Las Vegas Aces come into this set off of a 107-98 OT win in their winner take all game five last time out.

Aces Making 4th Finals Appearance Last 6 Years


A’Ja Wilson leads the Aces across the board with 21.5 PPG along with 9.1 RPG to go along with 3.3 APG, 2.3 BPG and 1.7 SPG. Jackie Young has 16.6 PPG with 4.1 RPG and 4.5 APG as well this season. Chelsea Gray has chipped in 11 PPG with 4.1 RPG and 4.5 APG and Jewell Loyd’s added 11.4 PPG with 3.7 RPG to round out the group of double-digit scorers for Las Vegas so far this season.

Phoenix Mercury @ Las Vegas Aces Betting Trends: October 3, 2025

Why the Las Vegas Aces will win

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

Total Points Facts

Las Vegas Aces Player Facts

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

Matchup/League Facts

Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces Prediction

I’m on the Aces here. I think that the Mercury are the more rested team, but I think this is a situation where experience matters and while the Mercury have one of the more talented starting fives in the WNBA, the Aces are one of the few teams that can match or surpass the Mercury in that regard. I’ll roll with the Aces to draw first blood with a win and cover.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Las Vegas -3.5

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