Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction 10/3/2025 Today’s WNBA Picks

The Phoenix Mercury and the Las Vegas Aces meet Friday in WNBA Finals playoff action from the T-Mobile Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces prediction.

Matchup History

The Las Vegas Aces picked up an 83-61 win over the Mercury back on August 21st, 2025, making it three straight wins for the Aces in this head-to-head matchup.

Phoenix Mercury Recap

The Phoenix Mercury come into this game looking to build on their 86-81 win over the Minnesota Lynx last time out to win the series in four games.

Mercury Looking For First Title Win Since 2014

Satou Sabally leads the Mercury in scoring with 16.6 PPG along with 6.1 RPG, 2.5 APG and 1.3 SPG while Alyssa Thomas has 15.8 PPG with 8.9 RPG and 9.2 APG and Kahleah Copper has 16.3 PPG. DeWanna Bonner has 11.2 PPG in 20 games so far with Phoenix to cap off the double-digit scorers for Phoenix so far this season. Sami Whitcomb also has 9.1 PPG with 2.8 RPG and 2.6 APG while Lexi Held’s added 5.7 PPG and Monique Akoa Makani has 8 PPG. Kitija Laksa has 6 PPG as well on the year.

Las Vegas Aces Recap

The Las Vegas Aces come into this set off of a 107-98 OT win in their winner take all game five last time out.

Aces Making 4th Finals Appearance Last 6 Years

A’Ja Wilson leads the Aces across the board with 21.5 PPG along with 9.1 RPG to go along with 3.3 APG, 2.3 BPG and 1.7 SPG. Jackie Young has 16.6 PPG with 4.1 RPG and 4.5 APG as well this season. Chelsea Gray has chipped in 11 PPG with 4.1 RPG and 4.5 APG and Jewell Loyd’s added 11.4 PPG with 3.7 RPG to round out the group of double-digit scorers for Las Vegas so far this season.

Phoenix Mercury @ Las Vegas Aces Betting Trends: October 3, 2025

Why the Las Vegas Aces will win

• The Aces have won 14 of their last 15 home games.
• The Mercury have lost each of their last 11 Friday games as road underdogs.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 13 Friday road games.
• The Aces have covered the spread in six of their last seven home games against Western Conference opponents.

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The Mercury have won three of their last four games as underdogs.
• The Aces have lost each of their last three day games at Michelob Ultra Arena following a home win.
• The Aces have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four day games at Michelob Ultra Arena following a home win.
• The Mercury have covered the spread in five of their last six games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Mercury’s last seven road games following a home win have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Aces’ last six home games following a home win have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Three of the last four WNBA Finals games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Las Vegas Aces Player Facts

• A’ja Wilson ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (23.4) this season.
• Chelsea Gray has recorded 2+ steals in four consecutive appearances – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) this season.
• Kahleah Copper ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for three-pointers made per game (2.0) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Las Vegas Aces rank 1st for opponent blocks per game this season (2.6).
• The Las Vegas Aces rank 12th for opponent free throw percentage this season (81.5%).
• The Phoenix Mercury have recorded the longest winning streak in the WNBA this season (3 games).
• The Phoenix Mercury have recorded the longest home winning streak in the WNBA this season (2 games).

Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces Prediction

I’m on the Aces here. I think that the Mercury are the more rested team, but I think this is a situation where experience matters and while the Mercury have one of the more talented starting fives in the WNBA, the Aces are one of the few teams that can match or surpass the Mercury in that regard. I’ll roll with the Aces to draw first blood with a win and cover.