Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Prediction 8/7/2026 Today’s WNBA Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Aug 5, 2026; College Park, Georgia, USA; Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas (25) reacts after a play against the Atlanta Dream in the first quarter at Gateway Center Arena at College Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Phoenix Mercury
Connecticut Sun
Team Records
12-20
7-23
Where
Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
When
Friday, August 7, 2026
Time
07:30 PM EDT
TV
ION
The Phoenix Mercury and the Connecticut Sun meet Friday in WNBA action from the Mohegan Sun Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun prediction.
Matchup History
The Phoenix Mercury won the most recent meeting between these two teams back on July 19th, 2026, by a final score of 72-63, making it back-to-back wins for Connecticut in this head-to-head matchup.
Phoenix Mercury Recap
The Phoenix Mercury will be out to rebound from a 96-82 loss at the hands of the Atlanta Dream last time out to sit at 12-20 this season. After this game, the Mercury will head on the road for a game against the Washington Mystics.
Mercury Alternate Wins & Losses In 4 Straight
Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury in scoring with 20.9 PPG while Alyssa Thomas has 14.9 PPG with 7.1 RPG and a team-high 8.3 APG to lead the Mercury in assists this season. Jovana Nogic has 10.4 PPG and DeWanna Bonner has 10.2 PPG with 5.8 RPG to cap off the scoring in double figures for Phoenix up to this point in the year. Natasha Mack also has 8.8 PPG with 7.4 RPG as well this season to lead the Mercury in rebounding.
Connecticut Sun Recap
The Connecticut Sun come into this game looking to bounce back from an 83-63 loss at the hands of the Dallas Wings last time out to sit at 7-23 this season. After this game, the Sun will take on the Atlanta Dream in a matchup at home.
Sun Lose 5 Straight
Brittney Griner has 13.8 PPG with 5.7 RPG and Leila Lacan has 13.3 PPG with 4.6 APG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for Connecticut so far this season. Aaliyah Edwards has added 9.9 PPG with 4 RPG and Olivia Nelson-Ododa also has 9.2 PPG with 5.6 RPG as well this season. Diamond Miller also has 8.6 PPG with 2.3 RPG as well this season.
Phoenix Mercury @ Connecticut Sun Betting Trends: August 7, 2026
Why the Connecticut Sun will win
The Mercury have lost each of their last four games as favorites following a road loss.
The Sun have won nine of their last 10 games against the Mercury at Mohegan Sun Arena.
The Sun have covered the spread in seven of their last eight home games against the Mercury.
The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight night games against Sun teams that held a losing record.
Why the Phoenix Mercury will win
The Sun have lost each of their last seven games following a road loss.
The Mercury have won each of their last three games against teams that held a losing record.
The favorites have covered the spread in seven of the Sun’s last eight games.
The Sun have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games.
Total Points Facts
Thirteen of the Sun’s last 15 night games at Mohegan Sun Arena following a road loss have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of the Mercury’s last four games against the Sun following a road loss have gone OVER the total points line.
Connecticut Sun Player Facts
Diamond Miller has the equal-worst plus minus (-154) of any player in the league this season.
Leila Lacan ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for steals per 36 minutes (2.4) this season.
Phoenix Mercury Player Facts
Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (8.4) this season.
DeWanna Bonner has recorded 7+ rebounds in five consecutive appearances – longest active streak of any player in the league.
Matchup/League Facts
The Connecticut Sun rank 14th for assists per game this season (19.2).
The Connecticut Sun rank 14th for assist to turnover ratio this season (1.3).
The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for opponent free throw percentage this season (80.7%).
The Phoenix Mercury rank 1st for opponent free throw attempts per game this season (18.5).
Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun Prediction
I’m on the over here. I don’t trust either team to play a lick of defense in this game, and although the Sun have been a valiant home underdog at times this year, there have been spots where this team has fallen flat on their face as well defensively. The Mercury’s addition of Kelsey Plum should ratchet up the offense but the defense is still concerning so I’m rocking with the over in this one.
