New York (27-17) vs Phoenix (27-17)
September 14, 2025 at 05:00 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Phoenix +1.5 — Over/Under: +164.5
The New York Liberty and the Phoenix Mercury meet Sunday in WNBA First Round playoff action from the PHX Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury prediction.
Matchup History
The Phoenix Mercury won three of four meetings with the Liberty in the regular season, including an 80-63 win over the Liberty in Phoenix back on August 30th, 2025, making it four wins in the last six head-to-head meetings for Phoenix in this head-to-head matchup.
New York Liberty Recap
The New York Liberty come into this series as the 5-seed, finishing with an overall record of 27-17 on the year including a 10-12 mark on the road this season.
Liberty Out To Defend Title In 2025
Sabrina Ionescu leads the Liberty in scoring with 18.8 PPG with 5.4 APG and 4.9 RPG while Breanna Stewart has 18 PPG with 6.6 RPG and 3.6 APG. Jonquel Jones has 14.7 PPG with a team-high 8.6 RPG to lead the Liberty in rebounding and Natasha Cloud has 10.1 PPG with 3.7 RPG and a team-high 5.3 APG to lead the Liberty in assists. Emma Meesseman also has 13.6 PPG with 5.3 RPG and 3.6 APG to cap off the scoring in double figures for the Liberty so far this season. Kennedy Burke has also chipped in 8.4 PPG and 2.2 RPG while Leonie Fiebich has 8.8 PPG with 3.7 RPG as well this season. As a team, New York is averaging 85.1 PPG on 45.5% shooting from the field, 35.7% from three and 83.3% from the foul line this season.
Phoenix Mercury Recap
The Phoenix Mercury come into the playoffs as the 4-seed, finishing with a 27-17 record as well this season, which includes a 15-7 mark at home this season.
Mercury Looking To Make Noise In 2025
Satou Sabally leads the Mercury in scoring with 16.6 PPG along with 6.1 RPG, 2.5 APG and 1.3 SPG while Alyssa Thomas has 15.8 PPG with 8.9 RPG and 9.2 APG and Kahleah Copper has 16.3 PPG. DeWanna Bonner has 11.2 PPG in 20 games so far with Phoenix to cap off the double-digit scorers for Phoenix so far this season. Sami Whitcomb also has 9.1 PPG with 2.8 RPG and 2.6 APG while Lexi Held’s added 5.7 PPG and Monique Akoa Makani has 8 PPG. Kitija Laksa has 6 PPG as well on the year. As a team, Phoenix is averaging 83.1 PPG on 43.4% shooting from the field, 33.8% from three-point range and 78.8% from the foul line so far this season.
New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction
I’m on the Mercury here. I get why the Liberty would be favored here, getting the respect being the defending WNBA champions. However, the Liberty were not as effective on the road this season, and I get that a lot of that was when they were in the favorite role on the road, but the Mercury are no joke in my opinion, and I think Phoenix could give the Liberty fits here as they did for much of the regular season. Give me the Mercury in this one.