New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction 8/1/2026 Today’s WNBA Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas (25) Connecticut Sun center Olivia Nelson-Ododa (10) at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix on July 19, 2026.
MATCHUP
New York Liberty
Phoenix Mercury
Team Records
16-13
11-18
Spread
-2.5 -115
+2.5 -105
Moneyline
-155
+130
Total
Over 176.5 (-112)
Under 176.5 (-108)
Where
Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ
When
Saturday, August 1, 2026
Time
03:00 PM EDT
TV
ABC
The New York Liberty and the Phoenix Mercury meet Saturday in WNBA action from the Mortgage Matchup Center. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury prediction.
Matchup History
The New York Liberty won the most recent meeting between these two teams back on May 29th, 2026, by a final score of 75-68, making it back-to-back wins for the Liberty in this head-to-head matchup.
New York Liberty Recap
The New York Liberty come into this game looking to rebound from a 104-99 loss at the hands of the Aces last time out to sit at 17-13 this season. After this game, the Liberty will head home for a back-to-back against the Seattle Storm.
Liberty Have Three-Game Win Streak Snapped
Breanna Stewart has 20.5 PPG along with 8.5 RPG and 2.8 APG while Jonquel Jones has 15.2 PPG with 9.1 RPG and Pauline Astier has 10 PPG with 3 RPG and 3.8 APG. Satou Sabally has 10.4 PPG with 2.8 RPG while Sabrina Ionescu has 10.7 PPG with 3.5 RPG and 3.8 APG and Leonie Fiebich has 10 PPG with 2.6 RPG to cap off the scoring in double figures for the Liberty this season.
Phoenix Mercury Recap
The Phoenix Mercury come into this game looking to add on to their 91-89 win over the Golden State Valkyries last time out to sit at 11-18 this season. After this game, the Mercury will head on the road for a game against the Chicago Sky.
Mercury Win 3 In A Row
Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury in scoring with 20.6 PPG while Alyssa Thomas has 14.5 PPG with 6.9 RPG and a team-high 8 APG to lead the Mercury in assists this season. Jovana Nogic has 10.4 PPG and Monique Akoa Makani has 10 PPG with 2.7 APG to cap off the scoring in double figures for Phoenix up to this point in the year. Natasha Mack also has 9.2 PPG with 8.3 RPG as well this season to lead the Mercury in rebounding.
New York Liberty @ Phoenix Mercury Betting Trends: August 1, 2026
Why the Phoenix Mercury will win
The Mercury have won each of their last eight home games after winning as underdogs.
The Liberty have lost eight of their last nine day games against Western Conference opponents.
The Liberty have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 10 games as favorites.
The Mercury have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games after winning as underdogs.
Why the New York Liberty will win
The Mercury have lost each of their last 13 day games against Eastern Conference opponents that held a winning record.
The Liberty have won each of their last five games against Mercury teams that held a losing record.
The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 13 day games against Eastern Conference opponents that held a winning record.
The favorites have covered the spread in seven of the last eight games between the Mercury and Liberty.
Total Points Facts
Each of the Liberty’s last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of the last seven games between the Mercury and Liberty have gone UNDER the total points line.
Phoenix Mercury Player Facts
Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (8.3) this season.
DeWanna Bonner ranks last amongst 49 qualified players for three-point field-goal percentage (25.0%) this season.
New York Liberty Player Facts
Sabrina Ionescu has recorded 1+ assists in 226 consecutive appearances – longest active streak of any player in the league.
Breanna Stewart has made 4+ free throws in six consecutive appearances – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.
Matchup/League Facts
The Phoenix Mercury rank 1st for opponent free throw attempts per game this season (18.3).
The Phoenix Mercury rank 14th for field goal attempts per game this season (65.3).
The New York Liberty rank 14th for steals per game this season (6.3).
The New York Liberty rank 1st for free throw percentage this season (84.9%).
New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction
I’m on the Mercury here. I have given up trying to figure out the Liberty here and sure they were playing well before the loss to the Aces, but the Liberty are still wildly inconsistent and are banged up and I think they get shocked by the Mercury here. Give me Phoenix.
