New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction 7/30/2026 Today’s WNBA Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Jun 30, 2026; Brooklyn, New York, USA; Las Vegas Aces guard Chennedy Carter (23) shoots the ball while defended by New York Liberty forward Leonie Fiebich (13) during the second half at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
New York Liberty
Las Vegas Aces
Team Records
16-12
19-8
Spread
+5.5 -108
-5.5 -112
Moneyline
+168
-207
Total
Over 181.5 (-113)
Under 181.5 (-107)
Where
Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
When
Thursday, July 30, 2026
Time
10:00 PM EDT
TV
Prime Video
The New York Liberty and the Las Vegas Aces meet Thursday in WNBA action from the T-Mobile Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces prediction.
Matchup History
The New York Liberty won the most recent meeting between these two teams back on June 30th by a final score of 93-85, in the final of the Commissioners Cup.
New York Liberty Recap
The New York Liberty come into this game looking to add on to their 113-109 win over the Los Angeles Sparks last time out to sit at 17-12 this season. After this game, the Liberty will head on the road for a game against the Phoenix Mercury.
Liberty Win 3 In A Row
Breanna Stewart has 20.5 PPG along with 8.5 RPG and 2.8 APG while Jonquel Jones has 15.2 PPG with 9.1 RPG and Pauline Astier has 10 PPG with 3 RPG and 3.8 APG. Satou Sabally has 10.4 PPG with 2.8 RPG while Sabrina Ionescu has 10.7 PPG with 3.5 RPG and 3.8 APG and Leonie Fiebich has 10 PPG with 2.6 RPG to cap off the scoring in double figures for the Liberty this season.
Las Vegas Aces Recap
The Las Vegas Aces come into this game looking to add on to their 98-83 win over Portland last time out to sit at 19-9 this season. After this game, the Aces will head on the road for a game against the Chicago Sky.
Aces Alternate Wins & Losses In 5 Straight
A’Ja Wilson leads the Aces in scoring with 26 PPG along with 9.4 RPG and 2.9 APG while NaLyssa Smith’s added 12 PPG with 6.3 RPG. Chelsea Gray’s added 12.3 PPG with 7.3 APG to lead the Aces in assists and Jackie Young also has 16.5 PPG with 4.5 RPG and 6.8 APG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for the Aces up to this point in the season.
New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces Betting Trends: July 30, 2026
Why the Las Vegas Aces will win
The Aces have won 13 of their last 15 night games at Michelob Ultra Arena.
The Liberty have lost 11 of their last 12 Thursday games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
The Liberty have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games.
The Aces have covered the spread in five of their last six night games against the Liberty at Michelob Ultra Arena.
Why the New York Liberty will win
The Aces have lost four of their last five games as favorites following a home win.
The Liberty have won five of their last seven games as underdogs against the Aces.
The underdogs have covered the spread in seven of the Liberty’s last eight games.
The Aces have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games against Eastern Conference opponents that held a winning record.
Total Points Facts
Each of the Liberty’s last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of the Aces’ last four games have gone OVER the total points line.
Las Vegas Aces Player Facts
A’ja Wilson ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (26.2) this season.
Chelsea Gray ranks 1st amongst qualified players for FT% (94.5%) this season.
New York Liberty Player Facts
Sabrina Ionescu has recorded 1+ assists in 225 consecutive appearances – longest active streak of any player in the league.
Breanna Stewart has recorded 2+ blocks in four consecutive appearances – longest active streak of any player in the league.
Matchup/League Facts
The Las Vegas Aces rank 1st for assists per game this season (22.4).
The Las Vegas Aces rank 1st for blocks per game this season (5.0).
The New York Liberty rank 14th for steals per game this season (6.2).
The New York Liberty rank 1st for free throw percentage this season (85.0%).
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Prediction
I’m on the Aces here. It’s a double-revenge spot for the Aces after losing the final of the Commissioners Cup, and while the Liberty just seem to have the Aces’ number, it’s more for me about the Liberty just being too banged up to feel comfortable backing in a spot like this. I think Las Vegas focuses up at home and gets the job done in this one so give me Las Vegas.
