Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction 9/28/2025 Today’s WNBA Picks

The Minnesota Lynx and the Phoenix Mercury meet Sunday in WNBA Semifinal playoff action from the PHX Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury prediction.

Game Three Recap

The Phoenix Mercury took the series lead and pushed the Lynx to the brink with an 84-76 win over the Lynx to take the 2-1 series lead. Satou Sabally led the Mercury with 23 points while Kahleah Copper had 21 points on 9 of 13 shooting and Alyssa Thomas added 21 points on 9 of 18 shooting with 9 rebounds, 8 assists and 5 steals to cap off the trio of double-digit scorers for the Mercury in the win. DeWanna Bonner also added 8 rebounds off of the bench. Natisha Hiedeman led the Lynx with 19 points on 7 of 12 shooting while Napheesa Collier had 17 points on 8 of 15 shooting with 6 rebounds and 3 assists and 3 blocks before leaving late with an injury. Courtney Williams chipped in 14 points with 5 boards, 3 rebounds and a pair of steals and Kayla McBride added 12 points with 5 assists and a pair of steals to round our Minnesota’s double-digit scoring in the loss.

Minnesota Lynx Stats

Napheesa Collier leads the Lynx in scoring with 23.4 PPG along with 7.7 RPG and 3.3 APG while Courtney Williams has added 13.9 PPG with 4.9 RPG and a team-high 6.3 APG to lead the Lynx in the assist department. Kayla McBride’s logged 15.1 PPG and 3.5 APG to round out the group of double-digit scorers for Minnesota up to this point in the season. Alanna Smith’s added 9.9 PPG with 5.3 RPG and 2.8 APG and Natisha Hiedeman has 7.8 PPG with 2.6 APG so far this season.

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Satou Sabally leads the Mercury in scoring with 16.6 PPG along with 6.1 RPG, 2.5 APG and 1.3 SPG while Alyssa Thomas has 15.8 PPG with 8.9 RPG and 9.2 APG and Kahleah Copper has 16.3 PPG. DeWanna Bonner has 11.2 PPG in 20 games so far with Phoenix to cap off the double-digit scorers for Phoenix so far this season. Sami Whitcomb also has 9.1 PPG with 2.8 RPG and 2.6 APG while Lexi Held’s added 5.7 PPG and Monique Akoa Makani has 8 PPG. Kitija Laksa has 6 PPG as well on the year.

Minnesota Lynx @ Phoenix Mercury Betting Trends: September 28, 2025

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The Mercury have won each of their last five home games after winning as underdogs.
• The Lynx have lost three of their last four road playoff games.
• The Lynx have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The home team has covered the spread in seven of the last eight games between the Mercury and Lynx.

Why the Minnesota Lynx will win

• The Lynx have won nine of their last 10 games as underdogs against the Mercury.
• The Mercury have lost seven of their last eight games against the Lynx after winning as underdogs.
• The Lynx have covered the spread in each of their last six day games.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against the Lynx after winning as underdogs.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Mercury’s last eight games as favorites following a home win have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Lynx’s last seven games as underdogs following a road loss have gone UNDER the total points line.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) this season.
• Kahleah Copper ranks 1st amongst qualified Forwards for three-pointers made per game (2.0) this season.

Minnesota Lynx Player Facts

• Courtney Williams ranks 1st amongst qualified Guards for assists per game (6.2) this season.
• Kayla McBride ranks 1st amongst qualified players in the Western Conference for three-pointers made per game (2.6) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phoenix Mercury have recorded the equal-longest winning streak in the WNBA this season (2 games).
• The Phoenix Mercury have recorded the longest road winning streak in the WNBA this season (2 games).
• The Minnesota Lynx rank 1st for points per game this season (86.1).
• The Minnesota Lynx rank 1st for point differential per game this season (+9.4).

Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction

I’m going to take the Lynx and the points here. No Collier sucks for the Lynx as she’s still out for this game with an injury, but I think this is still an overreaction to that. We have to remember the Lynx have plenty of experience without Collier who missed time with an injury earlier this year, and the Lynx still managed to win their fair share of games in that run as well. I’ll side with the Lynx and the points here.