Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction 5/12/2026 Today’s WNBA Picks

The Minnesota Lynx and the Phoenix Mercury meet Tuesday in WNBA action from the Mortgage Matchup Center. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury prediction.

Matchup History

The Phoenix Mercury won the most recent meeting between these two teams by a final score of 86-81 back on September 28th, 2025.

Minnesota Lynx Recap

The Minnesota Lynx come into this game looking to shake off a 91-90 loss at the hands of Atlanta to start the year at 0-1. After this game, the Lynx will head on the road for a game against the Dallas Wings.

Lynx Looking To Bounce Back In First Game Of Road Trip

Olivia Miles led the Lynx with 21 points along with 8 assists while Kayla McBride added 20 points on 7 of 13 shooting. Courtney Williams added 14 points with 6 rebounds and 6 assists and Emma Cechova added 12 points on 5 of 5 shooting off of the bench to cap off the scoring in double figures for Minnesota in the losing effort.

Phoenix Mercury Recap

The Phoenix Mercury come into this game looking to bounce back from a 95-79 loss at the hands of Golden State last time out to sit at 1-1 on the year. After this game, the Mercury will take on the Chicago Sky at home.

Mercury Looking To Shake Off First L

Alyssa Thomas has 19.5 PPG with 7.5 RPG and a team-high 10 APG while Jovana Nogic has 17.5 PPG. Kahleah Copped has 12 PPG with 3 APG and Natasha Mack has 10.5 PPG with 8.5 RPG to cap off the scoring in double figures for Phoenix up to this point in the year. DeWanna Bonner also has 9 PPG with 7.5 RPG and Kiana Williams has 8.5 PPG.

Minnesota Lynx @ Phoenix Mercury Betting Trends: May 12, 2026

Why the Phoenix Mercury will win

• The Lynx have lost each of their last four games.
• The home team has won six of the last seven games between the Mercury and Lynx.
• The Lynx have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six road games.
• The home team has covered the spread in eight of the Lynx’s last nine games.

Why the Minnesota Lynx will win

• The Lynx have won nine of their last 11 games as underdogs against the Mercury.
• The Mercury have lost four of their last five home openers as favorites.
• The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games against Lynx teams that held a losing record.
• The Lynx have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 games as underdogs against the Mercury.

Total Points Facts

• Eight of the Mercury’s last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Lynx’s last four games have gone OVER the total points line.

Phoenix Mercury Player Facts

• Alyssa Thomas ranked 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) last season.
• Natasha Mack ranked 1st amongst qualified players for blocks per 36 minutes (3.0) last season.

Minnesota Lynx Player Facts

• Courtney Williams recorded 2+ steals in five consecutive appearances – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.
• Kayla McBride ranked 2nd amongst qualified players for three-pointers made per game (2.6) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phoenix Mercury have allowed fewer than 100 points points in each of their last 31 games – team’s longest streak since 2021.
• The Phoenix Mercury ranked 1st for bench points per game (25.5) last season.
• The Minnesota Lynx ranked 1st for points per game last season (86.1).
• The Minnesota Lynx ranked 1st for point differential per game last season (+9.4).

Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction

I’m on the Mercury here. I’ll admit I’ve been impressed with the Mercury given that I thought this team would take a step back this year but as far as Minnesota goes I don’t have high hopes for their prospects without Napheesa Collier, even though they fell just short against the Dream in their opener. I think Phoenix takes care of business at home so give me the Mercury.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Phoenix -4.5