Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty Prediction 9/29/2026 Today’s WNBA Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Sep 27, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart (30) drives to the basket as Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier (24) plays defense in the second half during game one of the first round for the 2026 WNBA Playoffs at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Minnesota Lynx
New York Liberty
Team Records
33-11
26-18
Spread
-3.5 -105
+3.5 -115
Moneyline
-155
+130
Total
Over 173.5 (-105)
Under 173.5 (-115)
Where
New York Stadium
When
Tuesday, September 29, 2026
Time
08:30 PM EDT
TV
USA Net
The New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx meet Tuesday in WNBA playoff action from the Barclays Center. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx prediction.
Series Recap
The New York Liberty come into this game looking to pull off the first round “upset” after knocking off the 1-seed Lynx in game one by a final score of 91-75, led by Breanna Stewart’s huge 34-point, 12-rebound double-double while also leading the Liberty with 6 assists. Olivia Miles and Napheesa Collier didn’t show up in game one so it’ll be a must for the Lynx’s stars to show up in game two.
Liberty Looking For Sweep
Breanna Stewart leads the Liberty in scoring with 20.4 PPG along with 8.1 RPG and 3.2 APG so far this season. Four more Liberty players average double figures in scoring as well this season including Sabrina Ionescu who has 15.1 PPG with 4.0 RPG and 4.7 APG, Jonquel Jones with 14.6 PPG and a team-high 9.0 RPG on the glass, Satou Sabally with 10.4 PPG and 2.8 RPG, and Leonie Fiebich who adds 10.2 PPG with 3.0 RPG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for New York. Pauline Astier also has 9.2 PPG with 2.5 RPG and a team-high 3.4 APG to lead the Liberty in assists up to this point in the year.
Lynx Looking To Force Game Three
Breanna Stewart leads the Liberty in scoring with 20.4 PPG along with 8.1 RPG and 3.2 APG so far this season. Four more Liberty players average double figures in scoring as well this season including Sabrina Ionescu who has 15.1 PPG with 4.0 RPG and 4.7 APG, Jonquel Jones with 14.6 PPG and a team-high 9.0 RPG on the glass, Satou Sabally with 10.4 PPG and 2.8 RPG, and Leonie Fiebich who adds 10.2 PPG with 3.0 RPG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for New York. Pauline Astier also has 9.2 PPG with 2.5 RPG and a team-high 3.4 APG to lead the Liberty in assists up to this point in the year.
Minnesota Lynx @ New York Liberty Betting Trends: September 29, 2026
Why the New York Liberty will win
The Liberty have won each of their last four games as home underdogs against Western Conference opponents.
The Lynx have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
The Lynx have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven road games after losing as favorites.
The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the last four playoff games between the Liberty and Lynx.
Why the Minnesota Lynx will win
The Lynx have won 11 of their last 12 night games following a home loss.
The Liberty have lost each of their last three home games against teams that held a winning record.
The Liberty have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight night games at Barclays Center following a road win.
The road team has covered the spread in each of the Liberty’s last five games.
Total Points Facts
Eight of the Lynx’s last nine night games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Fourteen of the Liberty’s last 16 home games against Western Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
New York Liberty Player Facts
Breanna Stewart has scored 20+ points in four consecutive appearances – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.
Sabrina Ionescu has recorded 1+ assists in 241 consecutive appearances – longest active streak of any player in the league.
Minnesota Lynx Player Facts
Kayla McBride has recorded 13 games with 2+ assists and zero turnovers this season – equal-most of any player in the league.
Natasha Howard ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for FG% (59.8%) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The New York Liberty rank 14th for steals per game this season (6.1).
The New York Liberty rank 1st for free throw percentage this season (84.5%).
The Minnesota Lynx rank 1st for point differential per game this season (+7.2).
The Minnesota Lynx rank T1st for field goals made per game this season (33.7).
New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx Prediction
I’m leaning towards the over here. If Olivia Miles and/or Napheesa Collier hit a couple more shots in game one, this game goes over. The Liberty have been in high-scoring games all season long and I think this is no different. Game two has to be a step in the right direction for Minnesota as it couldn’t have gone worse, and the Liberty are one of the best 8-seeds you’ll see in some time. I think we have some fireworks in game two so give me the over here.
