Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction 5/21/2026 Today’s WNBA Picks
Chris Ruffolo
May 15, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Sparks guard Kelsey Plum (10) shoots the ball past Toronto Tempo guard Kiki Rice (1) during the fourth quarter at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Los Angeles Sparks
Phoenix Mercury
Team Records
1-3
2-3
Spread
+3.5 -112
-3.5 -108
Moneyline
+130
-155
Total
Over 177.5 (-108)
Under 177.5 (-112)
Where
Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ
When
Thursday, May 21, 2026
Time
10:00 PM EDT
TV
Prime Video
The Los Angeles Sparks and the Phoenix Mercury meet Thursday in WNBA action from the Mortgage Matchup Center. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury prediction.
Matchup History
The Los Angeles Sparks won the most recent meeting between these two teams by a final score of 88-83 last time out to snap Phoenix’s 7-game win streak in the head-to-head matchup.
Los Angeles Sparks Recap
The Los Angeles Sparks come into this game looking to bounce back from a 106-96 loss at the hands of the Toronto Tempo to fall to 1-3 this season. After this game, the Sparks will head on the road again for a game against the Las Vegas Aces.
Sparks Looking To Rebound
Kelsey Plum leads the Sparks in scoring with 26.8 PPG along with 5.5 APG while Nneka Ogwumike has 16.5 PPG with 6.8 RPG. Dearica Hamby’s added 17 PPG with 7.3 RPG to lead the Sparks on the glass and to cap off the trio of double-digit scorers for Los Angeles so far this season while Rae Burrell’s added 7.5 PPG and Cameron Brink has 7 PPG with 3.3 RPG.
Phoenix Mercury Recap
The Phoenix Mercury come into this game looking to bounce back from their 98-90 loss at the hands of the Toronto Tempo last time out to sit at 2-3 this season. After this game, the Mercury will head on the road for a game against the Atlanta Dream.
Mercury Drop 3 Of Last 4
Kahleah Copper leads the Mercury in scoring with 17.8 PPG along with 2.6 APG while Alyssa Thomas has 16.6 PPG with 7.2 RPG and a team-high 8.4 APG to lead the Mercury in assists this season. Jovana Nogic has 15.4 PPG and DeWanna Bonner has 11 PPG with 7.3 RPG this season. Natasha Mack has 10.4 PPG with 8.6 RPG to lead the Mercury in rebounding and to cap off the scoring in double figures for Phoenix up to this point in the year.
Los Angeles Sparks @ Phoenix Mercury Betting Trends: May 21, 2026
Why the Phoenix Mercury will win
The Mercury have won seven of their last eight games against the Sparks.
The Sparks have lost eight of their last 10 games at Mortgage Matchup Center.
The Sparks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games against teams that held a losing record.
The Mercury have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as home favorites following a home loss.
Why the Los Angeles Sparks will win
The Mercury have lost four of their last five games as favorites against Western Conference opponents.
The Sparks have won each of their last three games as road underdogs against Western Conference opponents.
The road team has covered the spread in each of the Sparks’ last six games.
The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games against teams that held a losing record.
Total Points Facts
Each of the Mercury’s last seven home games have gone OVER the total points line.
Four of the Sparks’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
The Phoenix Mercury have scored 90+ points in each of their last two games – team’s equal-longest streak since 2023.
The Phoenix Mercury have allowed fewer than 100 points points in each of their last 34 games – team’s longest streak since 2021.
The Los Angeles Sparks rank 14th for point differential per game this season (-10.5).
The Los Angeles Sparks rank 14th for opponent assists per game this season (22.5).
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction
I’m on the Sparks and the points here. As favorites I have the Sparks as a team that’s overvalued based on market and name brand, but as underdogs, this is still a really talented basketball team. Phoenix had their win against the Aces in the finals revenge spot to start the year, but since then have not done a whole lot and I just don’t feel like laying points with the Mercury against almost anyone. Give me L.A. and the points here.
