Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction 10/8/2025 Today’s WNBA Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Sep 30, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Aces guard Chelsea Gray (12) celebrates after making a play against the Indiana Fever during the fourth quarter of game five of the second round for the 2025 WNBA Playoffs at Michelob Ultra Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Las Vegas Aces
Phoenix Mercury
Team Records
30-14
27-17
Where
PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
When
Wednesday, October 8, 2025
Time
08:00 PM EDT
TV
ESPN
The Las Vegas Aces and the Phoenix Mercury meet Wednesday in WNBA Finals action from the PHX Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury prediction.
Game Two Recap
The Las Vegas Aces surged ahead to a 2-0 series lead in the finals after taking down the Mercury in game two by a final score of 91-78. Jackie Young led the Aces with 32 points on 12 of 20 shooting with 3 threes and 8 rebounds while A’ja Wilson added 28 points on 13 of 23 shooting with a team-high 14 rebounds and 3 assists. Chelsea Gray added 10 points with 10 assists and 8 rebounds with 3 steals and 3 blocks to cap off the trio of double-digit scorers for Las Vegas in the winning effort. Jewell Loyd added 9 points coming on 3 threes with 7 rebounds, 3 steals and 2 blocks. Kahleah Copper led Phoenix with 23 points on 9 of 18 shooting with 3 threes while Satou Sabally added 22 points with 9 rebounds and Alyssa Thomas chipped in 10 points with 6 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 steals to round out Phoenix’s group of double-digit scorers in the loss. Monique Akoa Makani added 9 points with a team-high 7 assists and Natasha Mack had a team-high 10 rebounds as well in the losing effort.
Las Vegas Aces Stats
A’Ja Wilson leads the Aces across the board with 21.5 PPG along with 9.1 RPG to go along with 3.3 APG, 2.3 BPG and 1.7 SPG. Jackie Young has 16.6 PPG with 4.1 RPG and 4.5 APG as well this season. Chelsea Gray has chipped in 11 PPG with 4.1 RPG and 4.5 APG and Jewell Loyd’s added 11.4 PPG with 3.7 RPG to round out the group of double-digit scorers for Las Vegas so far this season.
Phoenix Mercury Stats
Satou Sabally leads the Mercury in scoring with 16.6 PPG along with 6.1 RPG, 2.5 APG and 1.3 SPG while Alyssa Thomas has 15.8 PPG with 8.9 RPG and 9.2 APG and Kahleah Copper has 16.3 PPG. DeWanna Bonner has 11.2 PPG in 20 games so far with Phoenix to cap off the double-digit scorers for Phoenix so far this season. Sami Whitcomb also has 9.1 PPG with 2.8 RPG and 2.6 APG while Lexi Held’s added 5.7 PPG and Monique Akoa Makani has 8 PPG. Kitija Laksa has 6 PPG as well on the year.
Las Vegas Aces @ Phoenix Mercury Betting Trends: October 8, 2025
Why the Phoenix Mercury will win
The home team has won each of the Mercury’s last five WNBA Finals games.
The Aces have lost four of their last five road playoff games.
The Mercury have covered the spread in five of their last six home games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
The Aces have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five road playoff games.
Why the Las Vegas Aces will win
The Aces have won each of their last eight road games against the Mercury.
The Mercury have lost seven of their last eight home games against Aces teams that held a winning record.
The Aces have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games against the Mercury.
The Mercury have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five home games against Aces teams that held a winning record.
Total Points Facts
Each of the Aces’ last seven day games against Western Conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Seven of the Mercury’s last eight home day games following a road loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
Three of the last four WNBA Finals games have gone OVER the total points line.
Phoenix Mercury Player Facts
Alyssa Thomas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assists per game (9.2) this season.
Kahleah Copper has hit 3+ three-pointers in two consecutive appearances – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.
Las Vegas Aces Player Facts
A’ja Wilson ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (23.4) this season.
Chelsea Gray has recorded 1+ blocks and 1+ steals in three consecutive appearances – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.
Matchup/League Facts
The Phoenix Mercury have recorded the longest road winning streak in the WNBA this season (2 games).
The Phoenix Mercury have allowed fewer than 100 points points in each of their last 27 games – team’s equal-longest streak since 2021.
The Las Vegas Aces rank 1st for opponent blocks per game this season (2.6).
The Las Vegas Aces rank 12th for opponent free throw percentage this season (81.5%).
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction
I’m leaning towards the Aces here. It just feels like the Mercury are overmatched here and just aren’t competitive enough to make up for the difference in this kind of play at this point of the season. The Aces are just firing on all cylinders right now, and I think they could take a stranglehold on this series. Give me the Aces here.
