Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever Prediction 9/28/2025 Today’s WNBA Picks

The Las Vegas Aces and the Indiana Fever meet Sunday in WNBA semi-final playoff action from the Gainbridge Fieldhouse. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever prediction.

Game Three Recap

The Las Vegas Aces took the series lead after picking up an 84-72 win over the Fever in game three to hold a 2-1 series lead. Jackie Young led the Aces with 25 points on 9 of 14 shooting with 5 rebounds and 4 assists while NaLyssa Smith added 16 points on 8 of 13 shooting with 4 blocks. Chelsea Gray chipped in 15 points on 5 of 7 shooting with a team-high 6 assists and A’ja Wilson added 13 points with 8 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 blocks. Dana Evans added 10 points with 5 assists to cap off the scoring in double figures for the Aces in the win. Kelsey Mitchell chipped in 21 points while Lexie Hull added 16 points on 6 of 10 shooting with 3 threes, 10 rebounds and 4 assists for the double-double. Aliyah Boston added 12 points with 8 rebounds and 4 assists to round out the trio of double-digit scorers for Indiana in the losing effort.

Las Vegas Aces Stats

A’Ja Wilson leads the Aces across the board with 21.5 PPG along with 9.1 RPG to go along with 3.3 APG, 2.3 BPG and 1.7 SPG. Jackie Young has 16.6 PPG with 4.1 RPG and 4.5 APG as well this season. Chelsea Gray has chipped in 11 PPG with 4.1 RPG and 4.5 APG and Jewell Loyd’s added 11.4 PPG with 3.7 RPG to round out the group of double-digit scorers for Las Vegas so far this season.

Indiana Fever Stats

Kelsey Mitchell leads the Fever in scoring with 20.3 PPG along with 3.4 APG while Caitlin Clark has 16.5 PPG with 5 RPG and a team-high 8.8 APG to lead the Fever in assists, but is out for the rest of the season with an injury. Aliyah Boston has 15.4 PPG with a team-high 8.3 RPG and 3.6 APG to lead the Fever in rebounding and Natasha Howard has 11.3 PPG with 6.7 RPG. Odyssey Sims has 10.6 PPG and 4.1 APG in 8 games played so far to cap off the scoring in double figures for the Fever so far this season. Lexie Hull has added 7 PPG with 4.4 RPG. Sophie Cunningham also has 8.6 PPG with 3.5 RPG as well on the year. 

Las Vegas Aces @ Indiana Fever Betting Trends: September 28, 2025

Why the Indiana Fever will win

• The Aces have lost seven of their last eight day games against Eastern Conference opponents that held a winning record.
• The Fever have won each of their last six day games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
• The Fever have covered the spread in each of their last seven day games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
• The Aces have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 13 games as road favorites following a road win.

Why the Las Vegas Aces will win

• The Aces have won 20 of their last 22 games.
• The Fever have lost 17 of their last 19 games against Aces teams that held a winning record.
• The Aces have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 road games.
• The Fever have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four day games following a home loss.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the last nine games between the Fever and Aces have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Aces’ last eight games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse have gone UNDER the total points line.

Indiana Fever Player Facts

• Kelsey Mitchell ranks 1st amongst qualified players in the Eastern Conference for points per game (20.2) this season.
• Aliyah Boston ranks 1st amongst qualified Centers for assists per game (3.7) this season.

Las Vegas Aces Player Facts

• A’ja Wilson ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (23.4) this season.
• Chelsea Gray has recorded 45 games with 3+ assists this season – equal-most of any player in the league.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Indiana Fever have recorded the largest comeback win after HT this season – trailed by 19 points @ Connecticut Sun on August 17.
• The Indiana Fever rank 1st for second chance points (556) this season.
• The Las Vegas Aces rank 1st for opponent blocks per game this season (2.6).
• The Las Vegas Aces rank 12th for opponent free throw percentage this season (81.5%).

Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever Prediction

I’m going to lay it with the Aces here. I just think Indiana’s best chance in this series was to come out strong in game three and they did nothing of the sort as they couldn’t take advantage of a poor outing from A’ja Wilson. I think the Fever are cooked in this game. Give me the Aces to get back to the WNBA finals with a win and cover here.