Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever Prediction 9/26/2025 Today’s WNBA Picks

The Las Vegas Aces and the Indiana Fever meet Friday in WNBA semi-final playoff action from the Gainbridge Fieldhouse. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever prediction.

Game Two Recap

The Las Vegas Aces tied their best-of-5 series up at one win apiece by knocking off the Fever by a final score of 90-68 in game two. A’Ja Wilson led the Aces with 25 points on 10 of 18 shooting with 9 rebounds and 5 steals while NaLyssa Smith chipped in 18 points and 7 boards on 7 of 9 shooting from the field. Jackie Young added 13 points with 5 rebounds and 5 assists while Jewell Loyd and Dana Evans each had 10 points off of the bench to cap off the double-digit scoring for the Aces in the win. Chelsea Gray also chipped in a team-high 10 assists as well for the Aces in the victory. Odyssey Sims led Indiana with 18 points and 7 assists while Lexie Hull added 15 points coming on 5 threes. Kelsey Mitchell chipped in 13 points with 5 assists and Aliyah Boston added 10 points with 13 rebounds to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for Indiana in the loss.

Las Vegas Aces Stats

A’Ja Wilson leads the Aces across the board with 21.5 PPG along with 9.1 RPG to go along with 3.3 APG, 2.3 BPG and 1.7 SPG. Jackie Young has 16.6 PPG with 4.1 RPG and 4.5 APG as well this season. Chelsea Gray has chipped in 11 PPG with 4.1 RPG and 4.5 APG and Jewell Loyd’s added 11.4 PPG with 3.7 RPG to round out the group of double-digit scorers for Las Vegas so far this season.

Indiana Fever Stats

Kelsey Mitchell leads the Fever in scoring with 20.3 PPG along with 3.4 APG while Caitlin Clark has 16.5 PPG with 5 RPG and a team-high 8.8 APG to lead the Fever in assists, but is out for the rest of the season with an injury. Aliyah Boston has 15.4 PPG with a team-high 8.3 RPG and 3.6 APG to lead the Fever in rebounding and Natasha Howard has 11.3 PPG with 6.7 RPG. Odyssey Sims has 10.6 PPG and 4.1 APG in 8 games played so far to cap off the scoring in double figures for the Fever so far this season. Lexie Hull has added 7 PPG with 4.4 RPG. Sophie Cunningham also has 8.6 PPG with 3.5 RPG as well on the year. 

Las Vegas Aces @ Indiana Fever Betting Trends: September 26, 2025

Why the Indiana Fever will win

• The Fever have won each of their last six games as home underdogs following a road loss.
• The Aces have lost each of their last two playoff games as road favorites.
• The Fever have covered the spread in each of their last seven games as home underdogs following a road loss.
• The Aces have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

Why the Las Vegas Aces will win

• The Aces have won 17 of their last 18 night games.
• The Fever have lost 12 of their last 13 night games against Aces teams that held a winning record.
• The Fever have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six night games against Aces teams that held a winning record.
• The Aces have covered the spread in four of their last five night games against Eastern Conference opponents that held a winning record.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the last eight games between the Fever and Aces have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Aces’ last seven games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse have gone UNDER the total points line.

Indiana Fever Player Facts

• Kelsey Mitchell ranks 1st amongst qualified players in the Eastern Conference for points per game (20.2) this season.
• Aliyah Boston ranks 1st amongst qualified Centers for assists per game (3.7) this season.

Las Vegas Aces Player Facts

• A’ja Wilson ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (23.4) this season.
• Chelsea Gray has recorded 44 games with 3+ assists this season – equal-most of any player in the league.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Indiana Fever have recorded the longest road winning streak in the WNBA this season (4 games).
• The Indiana Fever have recorded the largest comeback win after HT this season – trailed by 19 points @ Connecticut Sun on August 17.
• The Las Vegas Aces rank 1st for opponent blocks per game this season (2.6).
• The Las Vegas Aces rank 12th for opponent free throw percentage this season (81.5%).

Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever Prediction

I’m leaning towards Indiana and the points. I think if Indiana wants to win this series they have to do it here because if I’m Indiana, I don’t want game five going back to Las Vegas. The Fever have shown their chiped at home, beating the likes of the Lynx to close out the year and the Dream by 17 points in their first round series. I think Gainbridge Fieldhouse will be fired up for this one. Give me the Fever and the points.