Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction 10/1/2026 Today’s WNBA Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Sep 29, 2026; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson (22) shoots the ball during game two of the first round against the Las Vegas Aces for the 2026 WNBA Playoffs against the Indiana Fever at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Indiana Fever
Las Vegas Aces
Team Records
28-16
31-13
Spread
+4.5 -110
-4.5 -110
Moneyline
+164
-198
Total
Over 181.5 (-108)
Under 181.5 (-112)
Where
Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
When
Thursday, October 1, 2026
Time
09:00 PM EDT
TV
USA Net
The Indiana Fever and the Las Vegas Aces meet Thursday in WNBA action from the T-Mobile Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces prediction.
Series Recap
The Indiana Fever managed to force a game three with their 99-89 win over Las Vegas last time out. Caitlin Clark led the trio of 20+ point scorers for Indiana with 27 points and 15 assists along with 5 threes while Kelsey Mitchell added 26 points and Aliyah Boston chipped in 22 points. For Vegas, A’Ja Wilson had 22 points with 9 rebounds while Jackie Young led the Aces with 31 points including 4 threes and 5 assists. Chelsea Gray added 10 points and a team-high 7 assists.
Fever Looking To Pull Off Comeback
Kelsey Mitchell leads the Fever in scoring with 25.0 PPG along with 1.7 RPG and 2.8 APG while Caitlin Clark has added 22.5 PPG with 3.9 RPG and a team-high 8.4 APG to lead Indiana in assists so far this season. Aliyah Boston is the other double-digit scorer for the Fever, averaging 16.9 PPG along with a team-high 8.3 RPG and 3.0 APG to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for Indiana up to this point in the year. Sophie Cunningham also has 8.3 PPG with 2.3 RPG, while Monique Billings has chipped in 6.8 PPG and 4.8 RPG for the Fever this season.
Aces Looking To Defend Home Court
A’ja Wilson leads the Aces in scoring with 26.0 PPG along with a team-high 9.4 RPG and 3.2 APG so far this season. Three more Aces players average double figures in scoring as well this season including Jackie Young who has 18.9 PPG with 4.4 RPG and 6.6 APG, Chelsea Gray with 12.0 PPG, 3.1 RPG, and a team-high 6.8 APG, and NaLyssa Smith who adds 11.7 PPG with 6.4 RPG to cap off the primary double-digit scorers for Las Vegas up to this point in the year. Jewell Loyd also has 7.7 PPG with 2.3 RPG for the Aces this season.
Indiana Fever @ Las Vegas Aces Betting Trends: October 1, 2026
Why the Las Vegas Aces will win
The favorites have won each of the Aces’ last nine games.
The Fever have lost each of their last four road games against teams that held a winning record.
The Aces have covered the spread in each of their last five games as favorites following a road loss.
The Fever have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four road games against teams that held a winning record.
Why the Indiana Fever will win
The Fever have won each of their last three games as underdogs following a home win.
The Aces have lost three of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.
The Fever have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games following a home win.
The Aces have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.
Total Points Facts
Each of the Aces’ last eight playoff games have gone OVER the total points line.
Each of the Fever’s last four playoff games have gone OVER the total points line.
Las Vegas Aces Player Facts
A’ja Wilson ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (26.2) this season.
Jackie Young ranks 1st amongst qualified players for FT% (92.8%) this season.
Indiana Fever Player Facts
Kelsey Mitchell ranks 1st amongst qualified players for 3P% (45.0%) this season.
The Indiana Fever averages 99.0 points per 40 minutes while Makayla Timpson is on the floor this season – highest mark of any qualified player in the league.
Matchup/League Facts
The Las Vegas Aces rank 1st for blocks per game this season (4.9).
The Las Vegas Aces rank 1st for opponent blocks per game this season (2.4).
The Indiana Fever rank 1st for points per game this season (96.0).
The Indiana Fever rank 1st for field goal percentage this season (48.7%).
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces Prediction
I’m on the over here. I know in game three, an all deciding game three, sometimes teams take a more conservative approach to things. That being said, these two teams have traded points in both games so far and I think this game is no different. Give me the over.
